Mortgage Rates, ADP today and Employment on Friday

August 2nd, 2017

Suggestions that can change during the day: Mortgage Bonds are near unchanged after push-pull data from the ADP Private Payrolls Report. Might be a good time to lock before the Employment Figures come out on Friday.

Rates Effective August 2, 2017 11:45 AM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. **Rate Assumptions below the news

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

30-Year Fixed Rate 4.000% (4.087%APR)

15-Year Fixed Rate 3.250% (3.397% APR

After close Commentary: Not a lot of action in the Bond markets today ahead of Friday's jobs data. The push-pull ADP data (headline weaker, June revised higher) had litle impact. The Bond closed at 103.06, -6bp. The Dow closed at yet another record high closing above the 22,000 milestone at 22,016.24, +52.32 points. The S&P 500 was up a meager 1.22 points to 2,477.57 while the NASDAQ closed near unchanged at 6,362.64. WTI oil settled at $49.59/barrel, +$0.43. 10-yr yield 2.26%. Dta tomorrow is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Late morning Commentary:   Data analytics firm CoreLogic reported on Tuesday that home prices, including distressed sales, rose 6.7% from June 2016 to June 2017 due in part to the continued theme: limited homes for sale on the market. On a monthly basis, prices were up 1.1%. “Home prices are marching ever higher – up almost 50% since the trough in March 2011," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "With no end in sight, affordability is rapidly deteriorating nationally and especially in some key areas such as Denver, Houston, Miami and Washington.”

Inflation remained tame in June; the low levels could keep the Federal Reserve from raising the short-term Fed Funds Rate anytime soon. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, rose 1.5% annually in June, which is below the Fed's target range of 2%. The report also showed that Personal Incomes were unchanged during the month, while Personal Spending was up 0.1%, matching expectations.

Construction spending across the nation declined in June due in part to a decrease in investments in public projects, reports the Commerce Department. Construction spending fell 1.3% in June to $1.21 billion, the lowest number since September 2016. Investments in public construction projects declined 5.4% during June, the biggest decline since March 2002. In addition, private construction projects fell 0.1%, while private residential construction fell 0.2%.

9:00 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 3 bp at a price of 103.09  up 6 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 103.09 High 103.09 Low 103.06

Dailey Moving averages we are currently above: 100  $102.67 200  $102.75    25 102.74  and below 50 102.95   Others numbers to watch this is a psychological number because all of the Zeros 103.00

Wed, Aug 02 8:51 AM Fed Fund Futures show a near zero percent chance of a hike to the Fed Funds Rate at the September FOMC meeting.
Wed, Aug 02 8:43 AM The Dow Jones Industrial Average looks to open at or above the 22,000 level for the first time ever.
Wed, Aug 02 8:37 AM The MBA reports that the 30-yr fixed rate mortgage was unchanged last week at 4.17%, jumbos +5bp to 4.11%, FHA +2bp to 4.07%. Those rates usually carry at least 0.30 in points added on top of the rate.
Wed, Aug 02 8:34 AM The MBA reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, fell 2.8% in the latest week.
Wed, Aug 02 8:34 AM The MBAs refinance index -3.8%, purchase index -2%.
Wed, Aug 02 8:19 AMU.S. dollar index 92.85, -0.04.
Wed, Aug 02 8:19 AMWTI oil $49.12/barrel, near unchanged.
Wed, Aug 02 8:18 AM 10-yr yield near unchanged at 2.26%.
Wed, Aug 02 8:17 AM June ADP payrolls revised higher by 33K to 191K.
Wed, Aug 02 8:16 AM MBS near unchanged after the jobs data.
Wed, Aug 02 8:15 AM July ADP Private Payrolls 178K vs 187K expected.

**Rate Assumptions

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.000% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $954.83 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.087%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

 

Contact

John Marbury
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