Wednesday's Rates & News (Fed Day!)

July 26th, 2017

Suggestion: It's Fed day! 2:06 PM EST Mortgage Bonds Traders like the Fed statement.  Currently it is a good time to float.

For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.

Rates Effective July 26, 2017 11:30 AM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates.  **Rate Assumptions below the news

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

30-Year Fixed 4.000% (4.087%APR)

15-Year Fixed 3.25% (3.397% APR)

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

After close Commentary: The rather dovish Fed statement boosted Bond prices and pushed yields lower after the 2:00 p.m. ET release. Low inflation levels continue to keep rates from rising while the unwinding of the balance sheet could be pushed back. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon gained 25bp closing at 102.91 after hitting 102.62 earlier in the session. Stocks were in rally mood all throughout the session on strong earnings data and held those gains post-Fed. The Dow closed at a record high 21,711.01, +97.58, the S&P closed flat at 2,477.83, while the NASDAQ closed at yet another record high of 6,422.74, +10.57 points. WTI oil closed at $48.75/barrel, +$0.86. 10-yr yield edged lower to 2.29%. Tomorrow's economic data includes Durable Orders and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Wed, Jul 26 2:31 PM MBS push further into positive territory after the relatively dovish Fed statement.
Wed, Jul 26 2:31 PM Stocks holding gains - Dow +107 points.
Wed, Jul 26 2:12 PM From the Fed statement: "For the time being, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated."
Wed, Jul 26 2:09 PM After falling below the 200-day Moving Average yesterday, the Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon trades back to that key technical level.
Wed, Jul 26 2:05 PM Bond prices edge higher after the Fed statement didn't offer up any surprises.

Wed, Jul 26 2:02 PM Fed: Labor market continues to strengthen.

Wed, Jul 26 2:01 PM The unwinding of the balance sheet will come soon. Inflation to remain below 2% for some time.

Wed, Jul 26 2:00 PM Fed: No change in the Fed Funds Rate currently at 1.25%.
Wed, Jul 26 1:58 PM The markets expect that rates will remain at current levels and that the Fed will not yet formerly announce the beginning of the process to run off its balance sheet. We will see.
Wed, Jul 26 1:46 PM Tick, tick, tick ... the Fed statement due out around 2:00 p.m. ET.
Wed, Jul 26 1:10 PM The $34B 5-yr Note auction garners an "A" rating.
Wed, Jul 26 12:33 PM Stocks holding gains.
Wed, Jul 26 12:32 PM MBS trade in an extremely narrow range ahead of the Treasury auction (1:00 p.m. ET) and the Fed statement (2:00 p.m. ET).
Wed, Jul 26 12:21 PM Oil prices rise, U.S. Stocks at record intraday highs as investors await the Fed.

Late morning Commentary:  The Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that New Home Sales in June rose a modest 0.8% from May to an annual rate of 610,000 units, which was in line with estimates. From June 2016 to June 2017, sales rose 9.1%. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2017 was $310,800. At June’s sales pace, there is a 5.4 months’ supply of homes for sales on the market, up 1.1% from May, though still below the 6 percent that is seen as normal.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting will end this afternoon with the 2:00 p.m. ET release of its monetary policy statement. There is a near zero percent chance of a hike to the Fed Funds Rate. The statement could give some clues as to the future path of interest rates and when the unwinding of the Fed's massive balance sheet will begin.

The closely watched S&P 500 closed at yet another record high in Tuesday's trading session fueled by higher oil prices, positive economic data and solid quarterly earnings reports. The S&P 500 Stock Index closed at 2,477.13 yesterday, up nearly 11% for the year. In contrast, at the height of the Great Recession, the S&P closed at a low of 666 in early March 2009. 

Wed, Jul 26 11:37 AM The Wall Street Journal reports that Americans spent records amount in home improvements. Spending on renovations is forecasted to grow nearly 7% in 2017 from 2016 to $316B. The report was from Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Wed, Jul 26 10:54 AM The Senate Republican plan to repeal and replace Obamacare fails to get enough votes.
Wed, Jul 26 10:01 AM June New Home Sales +0.8% to 610K annualized units, inline with estimates.
Wed, Jul 26 9:30 AM Stocks rise at the open. Dow +75 points.
Wed, Jul 26 9:14 AM President Donald Trump said in a Wall Street Journal interview he's considering re-nominating Janet Yellen as Fed chair but also views White House economic advisor Gary Cohn as a top candidate.

Wednesday 9:10 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 6 bp at a price of 102.72  down 6 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 102.69 High 102.72 Low 102.66

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

$102.60 100 Day Moving average $102.78 High of 5/16/17

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

$102.79 25 day moving

$102.79 200 day moving average

102.95 50 day moving average

Wed, Jul 26 8:43 AM However, the MBA mortgage rates are from last week and don't reflect yesterday's decline in Mortgage Bond prices.
Wed, Jul 26 8:40 AM The MBA reports that the 30-yr fixed conforming mortgage rate fell 5bp to 4.17%, jumbos -12bp to 4.06%, FHA -5bp to 4.05%. Those rates usually carry 0.30 in points.
Wed, Jul 26 8:39 AM The MBAs refinance index +3.4%, purchase index -2.2%.
Wed, Jul 26 8:38 AM The MBAs Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, was near unchanged in the latest week.
Wed, Jul 26 8:33 AM U.S. dollar index 93.93, +0.04.
Wed, Jul 26 8:32 AM Oil prices continue to push higher ... WTI at $48.38/barrel, +$0.50 
Wed, Jul 26 8:28 AM The Treasury will sell $34B 5-yr Notes today, results at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Wed, Jul 26 8:27 AM New Home Sales for June will be released at 10.
Wed, Jul 26 8:26 AM S&P futures higher ahead of the Fed decision with earnings in focus. Coca-Cola beats on earnings and revenues, Boeing beats on earnings and short on revenues, Ford Motor beats on earnings, inline on revenues. Facebook reports after the bell.
Wed, Jul 26 8:20 AM There is a near zero percent chance of a hike to the Fed Funds Rate today, but the accompanying statement could give some clues as to the future path of interest rates and when the unwinding of the Fed's massive balance sheet will begin.
Wed, Jul 26 8:19 AM 10-yr yield 2.32% from yesterday's close of 2.33%.
Wed, Jul 26 8:15 AM After yesterday's sell-off, MBS open near unchanged as the markets await the 2:00 p.m. ET release of the Fed's monetary policy statement.

**Rate Assumptions

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.000% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $954.83 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.087%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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