Thursday's Rates & News

July 20th, 2017

Suggestion: Mortgage Bond prices are modestly higher, despite the gains in the Stock markets. Carefully floating is recommended.

For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.

Rates Effective July 20, 2017 11:30 AM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

Fixed Rates

30-Year Fixed 4.000% (4.087%APR)

15-Year Fixed 3.25% (3.397% APR)

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.000% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $954.83 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.087%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

After close Commentary:  MBS closed near unchanged as did Stocks in today's lackluster session. The Bond closed at 102.94, +6bp. The weak Philly Fed had little impact on trading. Stocks ended mixed. The Dow lost 28.97 points to 21,611.78, the S&P closed near unchanged at 2,473.45, while the NASDAQ saw a meager gain of 4.96 points to end at 6,390.00. WTI closed at $46.79/barrel, -$0.33. There are no scheduled economic reports due for release tomorrow.

Thu, Jul 20 4:03 PM NASDAQ posts fresh record closing high of 6,390.00.

Thu, Jul 20 3:39 PM Stocks mixed into the close. Dow -11 points, S&P +1.76 points, NASDAQ +9 points.
Thu, Jul 20 1:44 PM The tailwinds for the Bond Market are inept Congress, low Inflation and slow wage growth … in no particular order.
Thu, Jul 20 12:55 PM At midday, MBS holding decent gains in a narrow trading range. Stocks mixed. 10-yr yield 2.24%.

 

 

Late morning Commentary:  Business activity declined in July from June in the Philadelphia region and fell to its lowest level of 2017. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 19.5 in July, down from the 27.6 registered in June and below the 22 expected. Any reading above zero indicated improving conditions. Within the report it showed that firms remained generally optimistic about future growth, while more than one-third of the manufacturers expect to add to their payrolls over the next six months.

Mortgage rates edged lower this week after rising two consecutive weeks in a row. The lower rates came after political gridlock in Washington D.C., which pushed investors into the safe haven of the Bond markets. Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 3.96% from 4.03% with 0.6 in points and fees. Last year this time the rate was 3.42%.

Real estate listing company Zillow reported on Thursday that median home prices rose to all-time highs in June, due in part to a severe shortage of low-priced starter homes for sale. The median price in June was a bit north of $200,000, up 7% from last year. Housing inventories have fallen 11% in June year over year with big declines coming from San Francisco (26%) and Minneapolis-St. Paul down 30%.

Thu, Jul 20 11:47 AM The median price in June was a bit north of $200,000, up 7% from last year due in part to supply shortages, reports Zillow.
Thu, Jul 20 11:25 AM MBS continue to trade in a narrow range with modest gains. S&P slightly lower.
Thu, Jul 20 10:00 AM Freddie Mac reports that the 30-yr fixed mortgage rate fell to 3.96% from 4.03% the previous week with 0.6 in points and fees added on top of the rate.
Thu, Jul 20 9:43 AM The Dow, NASDAQ slip into negative territory.
Thu, Jul 20 9:30 AM The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ trade in positive territory at the open.
Thu, Jul 20 9:24 AM MBS rebound and edge higher to session highs though the gains are modest.

 

 

Thursday 9:05 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 6 bp at a price of 102.94  down 0 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 102.91 High 102.97 Low 102.84

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

$102.58 100 Day Moving average

$102.78 High of 5/16/17

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

102.83 25 day moving

102.84 200 day moving average

102.92 50 day moving average

103.00  traders keep their eye on round numbers and this is one them with lots of zeros   

Thu, Jul 20 8:53 AM Earnings: Abbott shares higher after raising full-year profit forecast. AmEx, Travelers decline after posting drop in profits. Visa, Microsoft, eBay report after the closing bell.
Thu, Jul 20 8:48 AM Draghi does say that a highly accomodative interest rate policy is necessary.
Thu, Jul 20 8:42 AM MBS give up their meager gains and trade to unchanged after Draghi's comments.
Thu, Jul 20 8:41 AM ECB President Draghi says expansion has yet to feed through to prices; incoming data confirm strengthening economy; risks to growth are broadly balanced.
Thu, Jul 20 8:32 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims -15K to 233K vs the 245K expected.
Thu, Jul 20 8:31 AM July Philadelphia Fed Index 19.5 vs the 22 expected, down from 27.6 in June.
Thu, Jul 20 8:20 AM The Dow (21,640.75) and the NASDAQ (6,385.04) also closed at record highs.
Thu, Jul 20 8:17 AM S&P futures modestly higher after closing at an all-time yesterday of 2,473.83.
Thu, Jul 20 8:16 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed will be released at 8:30.
Thu, Jul 20 8:15 AM U.S. dollar index 94.94, +0.35.
Thu, Jul 20 8:15 AM WTI oil continues to edge higher up $0.24 to $47.36/barrel.
Thu, Jul 20 8:12 AM 10-yr yield unchanged at 2.26%.
Thu, Jul 20 8:09 AM Lending some support to MBS prices was the ECB saying it will purchase assets each month through December or beyond if necessary. ECB President Draghi will hold a news conference at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Thu, Jul 20 8:08 AM MBS open near unchanged as the benchmark Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon continues to hover near resistance at the 50- and 200-day Moving Averages.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
Mortgage Lender NMLS# 514390
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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