Tuesday Rates & News (Money is moving into Mortgage Bonds)

July 18th, 2017

Suggestion: Weakness in Stocks is pushing Mortgage Bond prices higher this morning. Carefully floating is recommended.

For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.

 

Rates Effective July 18, 2017 11:30 AM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates

 

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

Fixed Rates

30-Year Fixed 4.000% (4.087%APR)

15-Year Fixed 3.25% (3.397% APR)

 

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.000% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $954.83 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.087%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

 

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

After close Commentary: Mortgage Bonds rallied today as the major indices traded in a mixed fashion. Political gridlock and a lower-than-expected NAHB Housing Market Index also had a hand in pushing Bond prices higher. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 102.94, +25bp and closed just above the 50- and 200-day Moving Averages. The Dow lost 54.99 points to 21,574.73, the S&P 500 was up a meager 1.47 points to 2,460.61, while the tech heavy NASDAQ gained 29.87 points to an all-time record high close of 6,344.30 led by shares of Amazon and Netflix. WTI oil closed at $46.40/barrel, +$0.38. 10-yr yield edged lower to 2.26%. June Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released tomorrow.

Tue, Jul 18 4:18 PM NASDAQ closes at record high 6,344.30. Dow ends lower by 54 points, S&P posts a meager gain.
Tue, Jul 18 2:33 PM Fed Fund Futures see just a 47% chance of another rate hike this year (December), down from 50.6% on Friday.
Tue, Jul 18 2:11 PM Stocks cut into losses, S&P now near unchanged.
Tue, Jul 18 1:56 PM Not much movement in MBS for the past few hours.
Tue, Jul 18 12:49 PM At midday, MBS holding gains. Stocks lower, off worst levels. 10-yr yield 2.26%.
Tue, Jul 18 12:39 PM Wells Fargo to close 450 branches.

Late morning Commentary:  Fannie Mae continues to project that the pace of growth in total home sales will slow to 3.3% this year. Fannie believes that rapid home price gains amid scarce supply will remain a hurdle for potential home buyers, despite improvements in credit access. In addition, Fannie forecasts economic expansion will slow in the second half of 2017.

Home builder confidence slipped in July on concerns of rising costs for materials, particularly higher lumber prices. The NAHB Housing Market Index fell two points to 64, the lowest level in eight months and below the 66 expected. All three of the surveys components declined, which include current sales, sales expectations and buyer traffic. However, the index is still well into positive territory where any number over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good rather than poor.

Corporate earnings season is well underway with the spotlight today on Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs reported that both revenues and earnings beat expectations, but trading revenues in fixed income products are down 40% from the same period last year. Bank of America reported that it too beat on revenues and earnings while trading revenues saw a 14% slide in its fixed income division.

Tue, Jul 18 11:56 AM The 10-yr T Note falls to 2.26%.
Tue, Jul 18 10:40 AM MBS at session highs holding solid gains as Stocks fall further into negative territory. Dow -120 points.
Tue, Jul 18 10:04 AM The July NAHB Housing Market Index declines to 64 from a revised 66 from 67 in June, below the 67 expected to an 8-month low.
Tue, Jul 18 9:33 AM Stocks open lower.

Tuesday 9:03 PM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 15 bp at a price of 102.84  up  19 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 102.81 High 102.88 Low 102.78

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

$102.58 100 Day Moving average

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

$102.78 High of 5/16/17

102.85 25 day moving

102.89 50 day moving average

average

102.87 200 day moving average

103.00  traders keep their eye on round numbers and this is one them with lots of zeros

Tue, Jul 18 9:01 AM S&P futures slip into negative territory.
Tue, Jul 18 8:46 AM Fannie Mae continues to project that the pace of growth in total home sales will slow to 3.3% this year, as Fannie believes that rapid home price gains amid scarce supply will remain a hurdle for potential homebuyers despite improvements in credit access.
Tue, Jul 18 8:43 AM Fannie Mae forecasts economic expansion to slow in second half of 2017.
Tue, Jul 18 8:42 AM MBS push further into positive territory.
Tue, Jul 18 8:14 AM The July NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Tue, Jul 18 8:13 AM Fed Fund Futures showing a near zero percent chance of a hike to the Fed Funds Rate at next week's two-day FOMC meeting.
Tue, Jul 18 8:12 AM 10-yr T Note yield edges lower to 2.29%.
Tue, Jul 18 8:12 AM WTI oil $46.81/barrel, +$0.79.
Tue, Jul 18 8:12 AM U.S. dollar index 94.43, -0.46.
Tue, Jul 18 8:10 AM MBS open higher on the weakness in Stock futures as players digest the stream of earnings news.
Tue, Jul 18 8:09 AM S&P futures point to a flat open.
Tue, Jul 18 8:07 AM J&J beats on revenues, earnings, raises financial forecast for the year.
Tue, Jul 18 8:04 AM Bank of America beats on earnings, revenues, offsets trading slump.
Tue, Jul 18 8:02 AM Goldman Sachs reports better-than-expected earnings per share, fixed-income trading profits plunge 40%.
Tue, Jul 18 8:01 AM The latest Senate healthcare Bill gets pulled due to lack of support.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

Mission Statement

As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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