Monday's Rates and News (Tight Range)

July 17th, 2017

Suggestion: Mortgage Bond prices begin the week near unchanged. Carefully floating is recommended

For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.

Rates Effective July 17, 2017 11:30 AM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

Fixed Rates

30-Year Fixed 4.000% (4.087%APR)

15-Year Fixed 3.25% (3.397% APR)

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.000% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $954.83 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.087%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

After close Commentary: Not much action in the markets today as investors await key earnings numbers this week. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 102.69, +6bp and traded in an extremely tight range during the session. The weak Empire State Index had little impact on trading. Stocks closed near unchanged. The Dow at 21,629.72, the S&P 500 2,459.14, the NASDAQ at 6,31443. WTI oil closed at $46.02/barrel, -$0.52. 10-yr yield 2.31%. The July NAHB Housing Market Index will be released tomorrow. 

Mon, Jul 17 2:59 PM Stocks give up their meager gains and fall into the red. MBS near session highs in a tight trading range.
Mon, Jul 17 1:32 PM Little movement seen in MBS, Stocks.
Mon, Jul 17 1:02 PM The June median sales price of $245,000 was the highest in the history of RE/MAX report. The June price level was up 5.6% from May and up 7.5% from June 2016.
Mon, Jul 17 1:01 PM Loan application activity for the purchase of newly constructed homes decreased 4% in June from the previous month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Mon, Jul 17 12:56 PM At midday, MBS flat to higher. S&P holding meager gains. 10-yr yield 2.31%.
Mon, Jul 17 12:21 PM 44% of Americans have regrets about their current home or the process they went through when choosing it, a Trulia survey says.

Late morning Commentary:  A recent report reveals that an increasing number of U.S. companies are finding it difficult to hire new workers, and some have even raised wages. The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) reports that "slightly over one-third of panelists reports that their firms have experienced some difficulty in hiring," NABE survey chair Emily Kolinski said in a statement. The share of firms reporting increased wages rose 8% from April to 47%.

Economic data continues to stream in on the weak side with today's lower-than-expected regional manufacturing numbers. The Empire State Manufacturing fell to 9.8 in July, below the 13.0 expected and down from 19.8 in June. The closely watched new orders and shipment indexes both declined. In addition, the labor market component saw just a small increase in employment and no change in hours worked. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook remained favorable, though firms were somewhat less optimistic about future conditions than in June.

It is a big week for earnings, which could dictate the direction of Stock and Bond prices as well as mortgage rates. Wall Street will see numbers from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, IBM J&J and Netflix. Analysts estimate that second-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 companies rose 8.1% from a year earlier. First-quarter earnings posted their best numbers since 2011, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Mon, Jul 17 11:08 AM MBS near session lows in a tight trading range.
Mon, Jul 17 11:07 AM President Trump's six-month approval rating lowest of any president post WWII at 36%.
Mon, Jul 17 10:47 AM Little movement seen in the MBS market ahead of the New York Fed buying, which begins at 11:15 a.m. ET. S&P near unchanged.
Mon, Jul 17 9:38 AM S&P trades near unchanged soon after the opening bell.

 Monday 9:30 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 4 bp at a price of 102.66  down 16bp when rates were set Friday at 10:00 am et Open 102.75 High 102.75 Low 102.66

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

$102.57 100 Day Moving average

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

$102.78 High of 5/16/17

102.89 50 day moving average

102.86 25 day moving average

102.88 200 day moving average

103.00  traders keep their eye on round numbers and this is one them with lots of zeros

Mon, Jul 17 9:16 AM The Empire data had little impact on trading.
Mon, Jul 17 9:15 AM July Empire Manufacturing weak at 9.8 vs 13.0 expected and down from 19.8 in June.
Mon, Jul 17 8:41 AM Earnings this week includes numbers from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, IBM and J&J and Netflix.
Mon, Jul 17 8:38 AM The New York Fed will purchase up to $1.325B in Fannie/Freddie 30-5 3% and 3.5% coupon beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET this morning.
Mon, Jul 17 8:36 AM WTI oil $47.48/barrel, near unchanged.
Mon, Jul 17 8:36 AM U.S. dollar index 94.92, near unchanged.
Mon, Jul 17 8:35 AM S&P futures near unchanged with prices hovering near all-time highs as earnings season continues.
Mon, Jul 17 8:33 AM The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) reports hiring difficulties and some have raised wages as a result.
Mon, Jul 17 8:29 AM The 10-yr yield edges lower to 2.30%.
Mon, Jul 17 8:29 AM The economic calendar is on the light side this week beginning with the Empire Manufacturing Index this morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The rest of the week brings the NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits and the Philly Fed.
Mon, Jul 17 8:27 AM MBS begin the 5-day workweek modestly higher as they try and build on last week's positive gains which was fueled by low inflation, weak economic data and a rather dovish tone from Fed Chair Yellen.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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