Friday's Rates and News (Tame inflation & Weak Retail Sales)

Friday's Rates and News (Tame inflation & Weak Retail Sales)

July 14th, 2017

Suggestion: 12:30 PM EST Prices are down from this morning's trading sending yields up.  It might be a good time to lock in.

For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.

Rates Effective July 14, 2017 11:30 AM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates

 

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

Fixed Rates

30-Year Fixed 4.000% (4.087%APR)

15-Year Fixed 3.25% (3.397% APR)

 

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.000% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $954.83 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.087%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

After close Commentary: MBS opened to the upside and traded even higher by mid morning, but gave up most of the gains as the session wore on. Weak Retail Sales and tame CPI were the catalysts that pushed prices higher in early trading. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 102.66, +9bp after being up 38bp earlier in the session. The Dow and S&P closed at record highs of 21,637.74, +84.65 points and 2,459.29, +11.44 points, respectively. The NASDAQ closed at 6,312.46, +38.02 points. WTI oil closed at $46.54, +$0.46. 10-yr yield 2.32%. Next week's economic calendar is on the light side with a few manufacturing and housing reports. Have a great weekend!

Fri, Jul 14 4:00 PM The Dow (21,639) and S&P (2,459) close at record highs.
Fri, Jul 14 3:40 PM Dow up 121 points to record high of 21,674.
Fri, Jul 14 2:23 PM Not much movement after 11:54 a.m. ET Alert to lock as prices hover near the session lows.
Fri, Jul 14 12:56 PM At midday, MBS modestly higher, off best levels. Stocks holding good gains. 10-yr yield 2.31%.
 

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NLChart 11170714

Friday 12:30 PM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 13 bp at a price of 102.69  down 10bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am et Open 102.66 High 102.94 Low 102.62

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

$102.57 100 Day Moving average

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

$102.78 High of 5/16/17

102.89 50 day moving average

102.89 25 day moving average

102.90 200 day moving average

 

Fri, Jul 14 11:48 AM MBS fall to session lows. Alert To Lock!

Late morning Commentary:  The Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales fell 0.2% versus the +0.1% expected in June, the second monthly decrease in a row. Consumers spent less at department and food stores; receipts at gas stations also declined. Retail sales ex-autos fell 0.2%, below the +0.2% expected. Retail Sales rose 2.8% year-over-year in June.


The inflation reading Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in June, which was in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, CPI fell to 1.6% from 1.9%, the lowest annual number since October 2016 as costs declined further for gasoline and phone services. The Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose 0.1% versus the 0.2% expected, while the year-over-year reading remained relatively low at 1.7%.

Fannie Mae reports that consumers confidence in home selling strengthened in June pushing a key index to a record high. The Home Purchase Sentiment Index rose 2.1% to 88.3 in June, matching the all-time high set back in February. The net share who reported that now is a good time to sell a home reached a new record high, increasing an additional 7%, outpacing the net 3%increase of Americans who reported that now is a good time to buy a home.

Fri, Jul 14 10:27 AM Stocks edge higher as tame inflation and weak economic data dims rate hike chances.
Fri, Jul 14 10:17 AM The MBA reports a slight uptick in mortgage credit availability in June.
Fri, Jul 14 10:10 AM MBS off session highs. Be on guard for any reversal lower. We are watching it carefully.
Fri, Jul 14 10:07 AM Stocks lose some gains after the weaker-than-expected Consumer Sentiment data.
Fri, Jul 14 10:06 AM Preliminary July Consumer Sentiment 93.1, below the 95.1 expected and down from the June number of 95.1.
Fri, Jul 14 9:38 AM Dow, S&P, NASDAQ push into positive territory.
Fri, Jul 14 9:32 AM Dow, S&P lower at the open.
Fri, Jul 14 9:28 AM MBS holding solid gains.
Fri, Jul 14 8:45 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon rises above resistance two (R2) at 102.78, now at 102.81, after having closed above resistance one (R1) at the 100-day Moving Average yesterday (102.57).
Fri, Jul 14 8:42 AM MBS get a boost after tame inflation and weak Retail Sales.
Fri, Jul 14 8:34 AM Year-over-year CPI 1.6% from 1.9%, Core 1.7%, unchanged.
Fri, Jul 14 8:34 AM June Retail Sales -0.2% vs 0.1%, ex-autos -0.2% vs 0.2% expected.
Fri, Jul 14 8:33 AM June CPI tame at 0.0%, in line. Core CPI 0.1% vs 0.2% expected.
Fri, Jul 14 8:24 AM JPMorgan Chase beat on both revenues and net earnings, but lowers its net income forecast for the year. Citigroup beats on both, but trading profits decline. Wells Fargo beats on earnings, misses on revenues.
Fri, Jul 14 8:24 AM S&P futures modestly lower after the mixed banking results.
Fri, Jul 14 8:18 AM U.S. dollar index 95.42, -0.10.
Fri, Jul 14 8:18 AM WTI oil $46.66/barrel, +$0.59.
Fri, Jul 14 8:17 AM 10-yr yield 2.33%.
Fri, Jul 14 8:16 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Thursday that he would want to see "greater evidence" of inflation rebound before hiking rates further.
Fri, Jul 14 8:14 AM MBS open slightly higher ahead of some key reports on consumer inflation/June CPI, along with with June Retail Sales at 8:30 and July Consumer Sentiment at 10.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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