Thursday's Rates and News

July 13th, 2017

Suggestion: Mortgage Bond prices are near unchanged supported by Fed Chair Yellen's dovish stance on interest rate policy. Carefully floating is recommended.

For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.

Rates Effective July 13, 2017 11:30 AM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates

 

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

Fixed Rates

30-Year Fixed 4.000% (4.087%APR)

15-Year Fixed 3.25% (3.397% APR)

 

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.000% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $954.83 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.087%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

 

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

After close Commentary: MBS traded in a tight range for most of the session and couldn't produce gains after a hawkish tone from ECB Chief Draghi. Inflation at the wholesale level was tame, while Weekly Initial Jobless Claims hover near lows seen in the early 1970s. The Bond closed at 102.59, -6bp. Stocks had some minor gains led by financials. The Dow closed at a record high of 21,553.09, up 20.95 points, the NASDAQ gained 13.26 points to 6,274.43, while the S&P finished at 2,447.83, +4.58 points. WTI oil was last seen at $46.11, +$0.60. 10-yr yield edged higher to 2.34%. Tomorrow's data includes Retail Sales, CPI and Consumer Sentiment.

Thu, Jul 13 4:00 PM The Dow closes at another record high of 21,556.
Thu, Jul 13 3:01 PM Tomorrow morning, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PNC and Wells Fargo will release quarterly earnings.
Thu, Jul 13 1:23 PM The $12B 30-yr Bond offering garners a "C+" rating.
Thu, Jul 13 1:09 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (voter) says at present, with a Federal Funds Rate at a range of 100 to 125 basis points, I would like to see some greater evidence that we are making progress toward meeting our 2% inflation objective in the medium term.
Thu, Jul 13 1:04 PM The ECB may announce a taper of asset purchases at the September meeting.
Thu, Jul 13 12:40 PM The results from today's $12B 30-yr Bond auction will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Thu, Jul 13 11:30 AM S&P edges back into positive territory. MBS near session lows

Late morning Commentary:  Inflation at the wholesale level was tame in June as an increase in the cost of services was offset by a decrease in energy prices during the month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.1% versus the -0.1% expected, while the Core PPI was up 0.1%, just above the 0.2%expected. Year-over-year PPI fell to 2% from 2.4% in May, while the Core also fell to 2% from 2.1%. A low inflation environment continues to hold interest rates at low levels.

Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 4.03% this week as Bond prices declined and yields pushed higher after last week's positive June Jobs Report. The rate is up from 3.96% in the previous week and up from 3.42% last year this time. And though rates have edged higher, they are low by historical standards.

Freddie Mac makes homeownership and rental housing more accessible and affordable. Operating in the secondary mortgage market, it keeps mortgage capital flowing by purchasing mortgage loans from lenders so they in turn can provide more loans to qualified borrowers. Freddie Mac's mission is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. housing market in all economic conditions extends to all communities from coast to coast.

Thu, Jul 13 10:28 AM Inflation risks are two-sided says Yellen.
Thu, Jul 13 10:27 AM Yellen - financial system has strengthened.
Thu, Jul 13 10:23 AM Stocks trade to unchanged having given up some gains.
Thu, Jul 13 10:21 AM Fed Chair Yellen reiterates that gradual rate hike path seems prudent - focused on bringing inflation up to 2% target.
Thu, Jul 13 10:09 AM Freddie Mac makes homeownership and rental housing more accessible and affordable. Operating in the secondary mortgage market, it keeps mortgage capital flowing by purchasing mortgage loans from lenders so they in turn can provide more loans to qualified borrowers. Freddie Mac's mission is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. housing market in all economic conditions extends to all communities from coast to coast.
Thu, Jul 13 10:06 AM Freddie Mac reports that the 30-yr fixed mortgage rate rose to 4.03% this week with 0.5 in points, up from 3.96% last week. A year ago the rate was 3.42%.
Thu, Jul 13 9:45 AM Fannie Mae lowers its benchmark interest rate for standard mortgage modifications from 4.125% to 4%.
Thu, Jul 13 9:33 AM Stocks open modestly higher.

Thurs 9:17 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 3 bp at a price of 102.62 up 0bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 102.62 High 102.62 Low 102.44

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

$102.56 100 Day Moving average

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

$102.78 High of 5/16/17

102.89 50 day moving average

102.89 25 day moving average

102.91 200 day moving average

 

Thu, Jul 13 9:11 AM The New York Fed will purchase up to $1.625B in 30-yr Fannie/Freddie 3% and 3.5% coupons beginning at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Thu, Jul 13 8:51 AM June year-over-year PPI 2%, down from 2.4% in May. Core also 2% from 2.1% in May.
Thu, Jul 13 8:32 AM June PPI 0.1%, -0.1% expected. Core PPI 0.1%, 0.2% expected.
Thu, Jul 13 8:31 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims -3K to 247K vs 345K expected.
Thu, Jul 13 8:21 AM WTI oil at $45.43/barrel, -0.07.
Thu, Jul 13 8:21 AM U.S. dollar index 95.50, unchanged.
Thu, Jul 13 8:20 AM Data out this morning, PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30.
Thu, Jul 13 8:19 AM The Treasury will complete this week's offerings as they peddle $12B 30-yr Bonds, results at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Thu, Jul 13 8:18 AM 10-yr yield edges slightly higher to 2.33% from yesterday's close of 2.32%.
Thu, Jul 13 8:14 AM Ms. Yellen will be back on Capitol Hill this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET in front of the Senate Banking Committee, but we don't see any big market moving headlines today.
Thu, Jul 13 8:09 AM MBS open near unchaned a day after Fed Chair Yellen spoke in a not-so-hawkish tone.
Market Update

 

 

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

Mission Statement

As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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