Wednesday's Rates and News (Yellen Testifies)

July 12th, 2017

Suggestion: Bond friendly words from Fed Chair Yellen lifts prices this morning, while Stock prices also rise. Floating is recommended.

For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.

Rates Effective July 12, 2017 11:30 AM EST (Both 30 and 15 year down 0.125% today!)

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

Fixed Rates

30-Year Fixed 4.000% (4.087%APR)

15-Year Fixed 3.25% (3.397% APR)

 

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.000% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $954.83 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.087%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

After close Commentary: Coming Soon

Wed, Jul 12 2:20 PM Fed's Beige Book says worker shortage is limiting hiring, but little evidence that companies are raising wages.
Wed, Jul 12 1:20 PM Correction: the $20B 10-yr Note auction garners a "C-" rating, not a "C+".
Wed, Jul 12 1:08 PM The $20B 10-yr T Note auction garners a "C+" rating.
Wed, Jul 12 12:47 PM Nearing midday, MBS holding solid gains, Stocks higher. $20B 10-yr Note auction results a bit after 1:00 p.m. ET.

Late morning Commentary:  Mortgage rates edged higher in the latest week after a strong June Jobs Report sent Bond prices lower and yields higher late last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday that the 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rate rose to 4.22% in the latest week, while jumbo and FHA rates jumped 9bp and 8bp respectively to 4.19% and 4.12%. In addition, the MBAs Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, fell 7.4% in the latest week as rates increased. The refinance index fell 13%, while the purchase index declined 2.5%.

Fed Chair Yellen was on Capitol Hill this morning delivering her semi-annual testimony in front of Congress. Ms. Yellen said that the Fed's balance sheet would most likely start to shrink this year, while the economy is on a steady positive course. In addition, there is near full employment. Ms. Yellen went on to say that additional gradual rate hikes to the benchmark Fed Funds Rate are needed in next few years, but inflation in response to the economy is the key uncertainty. Ms. Yellen said, "the Federal Funds Rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance."

Due to the recent increase in home prices, the number of underwater mortgages have decreased while in the same time increasing the amount of equity available to homeowners. Black Knight Financial Services reports that lendable equity increased $695 billion from the same period last year bringing the total equity to near a staggering $5 trillion. Meanwhile, the number of underwater borrowers fell by 35% and down 16% in the first quarter of 2017. There are now 1.8 million borrowers underwater, the first time it has fallen below two million since 2006, though well above the 750,000 seen in 2005.

Wed, Jul 12 11:54 AM MBS holding gains as Fed Chair Yellen gives a rather dovish slant on monetary policy.
Wed, Jul 12 10:43 AM Yellen says inflation low until temporary factors drop off.
Wed, Jul 12 10:32 AM Yellen says Fed wants to return to Treasury only balance sheet, very focused on 2% inflation target.
Wed, Jul 12 10:05 AM Dow +150 points.
Wed, Jul 12 9:43 AM The MBA reported that the 30-yr fixed conforming loan rate rose 2bp to 4.22%, while jumbo and FHA rates jumped 9bp and 8bp respectively to 4.19% and 4.12%. Those rates do come with at least 0.30 in points.
Wed, Jul 12 9:42 AM The MBAs refinance index -13%, purchase index -2.5%.
Wed, Jul 12 9:40 AM The MBAs Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, fell 7.4% in the latest week as rates increased.
Wed, Jul 12 9:33 AM Stocks open higher, Dow +115 points.

9:14 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 28 bp at a price of 102.69 up 16bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 102.47 High 102.75 Low 102.44

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

$102.56 100 Day Moving average

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

$102.78 High of 5/16/17

102.90 50 day moving average

102.92 200 day moving average

102.93 25 day moving average

Wed, Jul 12 9:08 AM U.S. dollar index 95.56, +0.13.

Wed, Jul 12 8:48 AM The Treasury will sell $20B 10-yr Notes today, results at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Wed, Jul 12 8:46 AM Fed Chair Yellen: Additional gradual hikes needed in next few years, inflation response to economy is key uncertainty, "the Federal Funds Rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance."
Wed, Jul 12 8:45 AM MBS surge from the opening lows.
Wed, Jul 12 8:43 AM WTI oil $45.80/barrel, +$0.76.
Wed, Jul 12 8:43 AM There are no economic reports due for release today. Fed's Beige Book out at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Wed, Jul 12 8:39 AM 10-yr yield edges lower to 2.33%.
Wed, Jul 12 8:36 AM MBS rise after Yellen's prepared text. S&P futures add to gains.
Wed, Jul 12 8:35 AM Yellen: Monetary policy not on pre-set course.
Wed, Jul 12 8:34 AM Yellen: A few unusual price reductions limit inflation.
Wed, Jul 12 8:34 AM Yell en: Fiscal policy source of uncertainty.
Wed, Jul 12 8:33 AM Yellen: Balance sheet to shrink appreciably.
Wed, Jul 12 8:33 AM Fed's balance sheet to be bigger than pre-crisis.
Wed, Jul 12 8:31 AM Fed Chair Yellen says in a prepared speech for Congress in her semi-annual testimony that the balance sheet will most likely start unwinding this year.
Wed, Jul 12 8:27 AM MBS open near unchanged.
Wed, Jul 12 8:24 AM Mortgage Bonds had their monthly coupon rollover after the close of trading last night, with the effect being being -22bp for the Fannie Mae 30-year 3.5% coupon

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

Mission Statement

As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

Sign Up Now!