July 6th, 2017
Evening Suggestion: Tomorrow is Unemployment day. The conservative approach would be to lock in. Bonds have taken a pretty good tumble this week, so an aggressive approach would be to float and see what happens. I didn’t say it was a smart approach
Morning Suggestion: Global yields at all-time highs. Headline risk in tomorrow’s Jobs Report. Consider locking
For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.
Rates Effective July 6, 2017 11:30 AM EST
No origination on all posted rates. Call for other rates
Conforming loans $424,100 and under
30-Year Fixed 4.125% (4.213%APR)
15-Year Fixed 3.375% (3.523% APR)
Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
Commentary at the Close: Rising yields in Europe weighed on Bonds again today, but Mortgage Bonds were able to close off the worst levels. The FNMA 30-year 3.5% coupon closed at 102.41, down -18 bps. All major Stock indexes were down, with the S&P losing -22.79 to close at 21320.04, the Nasdaq down -61.39 to 6089.46, and the Dow losing –158.13 to 21320.04. WTI Crude gained .17 to wrap up the day at 45.30. The next headline risk comes with the Jobs Report for June, which releases tomorrow morning.
|Thu, Jul 06 3:39 PM U.S. dollar index 95.56 -0.49.|
|Thu, Jul 06 1:11 PM 62 percent of sellers' agents say staging a home decreases time on market, National Association of Realtors reported.|
|Thu, Jul 06 12:33 PM Purchase Index 6 percent higher than a year ago.|
|Thu, Jul 06 12:30 PM Purchase Index increased 3 percent from prior week, MBA said.|
|Thu, Jul 06 12:25 PM Refinance Index decreased 0.4 percent from previous week, MBA reports.|
|Thu, Jul 06 12:06 PM MBA reports mortgage apps increased 1.4 percent for week ending June 30.|
Late morning Commentary: Lower gas prices and higher consumer confidence may be just the ticket for Americans to spend more on fun in the sun this summer. Yesterday’s release of the Vacation Confidence Index showed Americans are on track to spend a total of $101.1 billion on vacations this year, a 12.5 percent increase over 2016 and the first time in eight years that spending has exceeded $100 billion. Allianz Global Assistance, the keeper of the index, suggests this increase could be a result of Americans having a brighter picture of the economy. The cost to fill up on a tank of gas and head out on a road trip is at record lows.
On the labor front, ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private employers added 158,000 jobs in June, below expectations. Private payroll gains in May were revised downward by 23,000 to 230,000. Non-farm payrolls for June will be released tomorrow and is forecast to show 179,000 new jobs.
Want dinner or dessert delivered to your door? There’s an app for that. More restaurants are jumping on the bandwagon to provide consumers ease and convenience with food delivery. McDonald’s has partnered with Uber. Baskin Robbins has hooked up with DoorDash. Buffalo Wild Wings, Panera, Burger King and others are in deep to make their consumer experience relevant in today’s market. A recent study showed ordering food from a restaurant or other food service provider via mobile app, text message or internet climbed 18 percent in March from March 2016.
|Thu, Jul 06 10:23 AM 10-yr German Bund yield up to .56%.|
|Thu, Jul 06 10:03 AM ISM Nonmanufacturing Index 57.4 vs 56.5 estimate.|
9:45 AM ET 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 3 bp at a price of 102.41 down 18 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 102.38 High 102.47 Low 102.31
Numbers to watch for:
Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders
Currently Selling opportunities for Traders
$102.54 100 Day Moving average
$102.78 High of 5/16/17
102.91 50 day moving average
Thu, Jul 06 9:37 AM 10-yr T note yield at 2.37% up from yesterday's close of 2.32%
|Thu, Jul 06 9:24 AM WTI oil at $45.99 up 86 cents.|
|Thu, Jul 06 8:31 AM Jobless Claims (Initial) 248K vs estimated 244K.|
|Thu, Jul 06 8:21 AM ADP National Employment Report 158K vs estimated 185K.|
|Thu, Jul 06 8:11 AM S&P futures open lower.|
Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post. However any aspect of such may change without notice. Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet. I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly. Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com The cost of subscription is very reasonable.