Wednesday's Rates and News

July 5th, 2017

Afternoon Suggestion: Ended the daywith a positive tone.  Consider floating till tomorrow mornings rates come out.

Morning Suggestion: Fed minutes at 2 pm ET could be a big market mover. Start the day floating, but be ready to lock.

For News that affect these rates drag all the way down the page.

Rates Effective July 5, 2017 11:40 AM EST

No origination on all posted rates.  Call for other rates

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

Fixed Rates

30-Year Fixed 4.125% (4.213%APR)

15-Year Fixed 3.375% (3.523% APR)

Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 4.125% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $969.30 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 4.213%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.375% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1417.52 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.523%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

Commentary at the Close: Bonds held steady after the June FOMC meeting minutes showed indecision over when to trim the Fed’s $4 trillion balance sheet. The FNMA 30-year 3.5% coupon gained 15 bp to close at 102.59 today. The S&P was up 3.53 to 2432.54, and the Nasdaq was up 40.79 to 6150.85. The Dow was down -1.10 to 21478.17. WTI Crude also dropped, closing the day at 45.60, down -1.47. The next headline risk comes with Friday’s Jobs Report for June.

Wed, Jul 05 3:38 PM
USD LIBOR 1-month 1.22%, 3-month 1.30%, 6-month 1.45%, 12-month 1.75%.
Wed, Jul 05 2:11 PM Inflation running “somewhat below” its 2% target rate.
Wed, Jul 05 2:05 PM Bonds holding steady after Fed Minutes show indecision as when to trim balance sheet. Looking to the Fall for clarity on economic conditions and inflation.
Wed, Jul 05 1:51 PM MBS shaking off early day losses, prices now nicely higher and back above the 100-day MA…good sign heading into Fed Minutes.
Wed, Jul 05 1:37 PM Oil sinking to it's lowest day in 3 weeks. Down $1.76 for the day.
Wed, Jul 05 12:12 PM  Factory orders miss helping Bonds and further weighing on Stocks.

Late morning commentary:   The biggest opportunity for market volatility today will come from the release of the Fed’s June FOMC meeting minutes at 2 p.m. ET. Interest in the timing of future short-term interest rate hikes will be overshadowed by indications of when the Fed will start to reduce the bank's $4.5 trillion balance sheet. That being noted, any mention of financial stability concerns will still cause a stir.

Speaking of stirring the pot, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Tuesday that they claim is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead; ICBMs have a minimum range of approximately 3,400 miles. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the test was a “new escalation of the threat” to the United States and its allies and called for stronger action against North Korea’s weapons development program.

Finally, days after Tesla announced its first mass-market electric car will hit the streets, Sweden-based Volvo announced all new car models will be electric or hybrid starting in 2019. The company is the first major automaker to set a date to phase out the internal combustion engine.

Wed, Jul 05 11:36 AM Positive Candle developing in Mortgage Bonds – let’s hope it continues.
Wed, Jul 05 10:56 AM Bonds moving higher and off worst levels, with Stocks slightly lower as markets await Fed Minutes.
Wed, Jul 05 10:12 AM 10-yr T Note at 2.34%.
Wed, Jul 05 9:18 AM 10-yr German Bund yield .48%.

9:00 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 3 bp at a price of 102.47 down 19 bp when rates were set Monday at 10:00 am et Open 102.50 High 102.50 Low 102.47

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

$102.75 High of 5/16/17

$102.54 100 Day Moving average

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

102.91 50 day moving average

103.00  Traders keep their eye on round numbers and this is one them with lots of zeros 

103.08 200 day moving average

103.12  Traders keep their eye numbers that have been resistance or support in the past.  This is one of them.

103.14 25 day moving average

103.59  High of 11/17/16

104.12  High of 11/10/16

 

Wed, Jul 05 8:37 AM U.S. dollar index 96.19 +0.22.
Wed, Jul 05 8:29 AM WTI oil at 46.37/barrel down 70 cents.
Wed, Jul 05 8:05 AM S&P futures opens higher.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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