June 23rd, 2017
Suggestion: The capital markets are quiet today as oil, stock and bond prices hover near unchanged. Carefully floating is recommended.
Overview: Mortgage rates remained just above all-time lows this week, as reported by Freddie Mac. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.90 for the week ending June 22 with 0.5 in points and fees. Last year this time the rate was 3.56%. Freddie Mac said that mortgage rates continue to hover near year-to-date lows "amidst ongoing economic uncertainty."
Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits continue to remain at levels not seen since the early 1970s as the sector contiues to strengthen. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose 3,000 to 241,000 in the latest week. This is the 120th consecutive week that claims have been below the 300,000 threshold, the longest stretch since 1970. The four-week moving average of claims, which irons out seasonal abnormalities, rose 1,500 to 244,750 last week, the highest since early April.
The Commerce Department reports that New Home Sales in May jumped nearly 3% from April to an annual rate of 610,000, above the 599,000 expected. From May 2016 to May 2017, sales were up almost 9% with May being the second highest tally of 2017. Tight inventories of just 4.6 month supply, pushed the median price to a record $345,800. A more healthy inventory level is six months’ supply.
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
Commentary at the Close: Coming Soon
|Fri, Jun 23 11:24 AM The Federal Reserve forecasts Q2 GDP at 1.8%, Q3 at 1.55%.|
|Fri, Jun 23 10:46 AM Stocks reverse and push into positive territory.|
|Fri, Jun 23 10:03 AM May New Home Sales up nearly 3% from April to an annual rate of 610K vs the 599K expected. Median home price at $345,800, an all-time high.|
|Fri, Jun 23 9:52 AM Stocks trading lower soon after the open.|
9:30 AM ET 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 3 bp at a price of 103.16 down 6 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am et Open 103.16 High 103.22 Low 103.09
Numbers to watch for:
Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders
102.92 50 day moving average
103.00 Traders keep their eye on round numbers and this is one them with lots of zeros
Currently Selling opportunities for Traders
103.08 200 day moving average
103.12 Traders keep their eye numbers that have been resistance or support in the past. This is one of them.
103.14 25 day moving average
103.59 High of 11/17/16
104.12 High of 11/10/16
|Fri, Jun 23 8:16 AM The typical summer Friday trading pattern will set in today as players look to jump ship early to start the weekend. Trading volumes will most likely be low.|
|Fri, Jun 23 8:15 AM Overseas markets were on the quiet side overnight.|
|Fri, Jun 23 8:11 AM U.S. dollar index 97.08. -0.22.|
|Fri, Jun 23 8:10 AM 10-yr T Note unchanged at 2.15%.|
|Fri, Jun 23 8:10 AM WTI oil unchanged at $42.81/barrel.|
|Fri, Jun 23 8:10 AM S&P futures near unchanged.|
|Fri, Jun 23 8:09 AM Economic data is limited to May New Home Sales.|
|Fri, Jun 23 8:08 AM MBS open near unchanged as the rather unimpressive week comes to an end. Last Friday, the Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 103.16, and opened at the price today.|
Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post. However any aspect of such may change without notice. Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet. I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly. Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com The cost of subscription is very reasonable.