Friday's Suggestion is a question, Do you want to take a risk?

Friday's Suggestion is a question, Do you want to take a risk?

June 9th, 2017

Suggestion 12:07 PM ET: Mortgage Bonds are sitting on the support of 200 day moving average.(103.19), and prices are at 6 month high with yields at 6 month low. A careful borrower would lock in on today's rates.If you are more aggressive then you might wait and see what happens next Wednesday at 2pm when the monetary policy statement is released.

 
Overview:  Fannie Mae released its Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) for May showing that the net share of Americans that think now is a good time to buy a home reached a record low. The HPSI fell 0.5 percentage points to 86.2 after a 2.2 point gain in April. Those Americans who feel that now is a good time to sell a home reached a record high. This is only the second time in the surveys history that the net share of those saying it’s a good time to sell surpassed the net share of those saying it’s a good time to buy.

The major Stock indexes hit record intraday highs in today's trading session after investors shrugged off the testimony from former FBI Director Comey and the elections in the U.K. The Dow (21,287), NASDAQ (6,341) and S&P (2,445) all rose as the week comes to an end. The markets have been on a torrid pace higher since the November elections and were given an additional boost after strong corporate quarterly earnings.

The retail sector has taken a beating lately due to lower revenues and store closings across the country. It has been reported that more than 1,000 stores closed their doors for good in recent weeks. Luxury retailer Michael Kors said it will be closing 100 stores this week. Since October 2016, more than 10,000 retail workers have lost their jobs. One industry insider feels that all is not lost for retail, it just needs a face lift. 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

12:01 PM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 3 bp at a price of 103.19  up  3 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 103.22  High 103.25  Low 103.16

 

Numbers to watch for:

Currently Buying Opportunities for Traders

102.81  50 day moving average

102.93 25 day moving average

103.00  Traders keep their eye on round numbers and this is one them with lots of zeros    

103.12  Traders keep their eye numbers that have been resistance or support in the past.  This is one of them.

103.19 200 day moving average

Currently Selling opportunities for Traders

 

103.59  High of 11/17/16

104.12  High of 11/10/16

 

 

Fri, Jun 09 10:43 AM The closely watched VIX, or fear factor, at 9.45, lowest since December 2006. The higher the number, the more fear in the Stock markets and vice versa.
Fri, Jun 09 10:14 AM The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all at intraday record highs.
Fri, Jun 09 10:09 AM MBS at session lows. Be on guard for a reverse lower.
Fri, Jun 09 9:30 AM Stocks open higher.
Fri, Jun 09 9:25 AM Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index slips in May, -0.5% to 86.2 following a 2.2 point jump in April, +0.9 from a year ago.
Fri, Jun 09 8:24 AM There are no economic reports due for release today.
Fri, Jun 09 8:19 AM The Monthly Bond Rollover will take place after the close of trading this evening.
Fri, Jun 09 8:16 AM Fed Fund Futures are showing a near 100% probability of a hike to the Fed Funds Rate when the monetary policy statement is released next Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Fri, Jun 09 8:13 AM WTI oil flat at $45.64/barrel.
Fri, Jun 09 8:13 AM U.S. dollar index 97.41, +0.51 as it pushes higher in anticipation of a hike to the short-term Fed Funds Rate next week.
Fri, Jun 09 8:10 AM MBS open near unchanged.
Fri, Jun 09 8:10 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon (103.22) opens right above support at the 200-day Moving Average (103.19).
Fri, Jun 09 8:04 AM The 10-yr T Note yield 2.20%, just above yesterday's 2.19% close.
Fri, Jun 09 8:03 AM The U.K. elections ends with no majority and has little impact on U.S. markets. S&P futures slightly higher. MBS look to open flat to lower.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscribers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
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