May 26th, 2017
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the second read on first quarter Gross Domestic Product rose 1.2% from the original reading of 0.7%. Slow business and consumer spending continued to restrain growth in the first three months of 2017. Consumer Spending rose 0.6% from 0.3%, still a low number. However, the Atlanta Fed predicts second quarter GDP to rise to 4.1%.
Consumer products meant to last at least three years fell less than anticipated in April, but fell for the first time in five months. April Durable Orders fell 0.7%, above the -1.2% expected while March was revised to 2.3% from 0.7%. In addition, the final read on May Consumer Sentiment came in at 97.1 versus 97.5 expected and had little impact on trading.
"Consumer sentiment has continued to move along the high plateau established following Trump's election," the survey's chief economist, Richard Curtin, wrote.
What Is Going On With Interest Rates? #wigowir
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
12:01 PM ET 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 0 bp at a price of 103.06 up 22 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 103.12 High 103.16 Low 103.03
Numbers to watch for:
102.58 50 day moving average the market considers a buying opportunity
102.71 25 day moving average the market now considers a buying opportunity.
103.00 Traders keep there eye on round numbers and this is one them with lots of zeros
103.12 Arbitrary number the market considers a selling number
103.29 200 day moving average the market considers a selling opportunity
|Fri, May 26 11:01 AM S&P continues to trade near unchanged as do Mortgage Bond prices.|
|Fri, May 26 10:07 AM The Bond markets will close early today at 2:00 p.m. ET, while the Stock markets undergo a normal session. All capital markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day. Our next Daily Market Update will be delivered on Tuesday.|
|Fri, May 26 10:01 AM Final May Consumer Sentiment 97.1 vs 97.5 expected.|
|Fri, May 26 9:45 AM Stocks slightly lower soon after the opening bell on Wall Street.|
|Fri, May 26 9:02 AM Fed Fund Futures show an 87% probability of a hike to the fed Funds Rate at next month's FOMC meeting.|
|Fri, May 26 9:00 AM U.S. dollar index 97.31, +0.13.|
|Fri, May 26 8:59 AM WTI oil $48.98/barrel, near unchanged.|
|Fri, May 26 8:51 AM March Durables revised to 2.3% from 0.7%.|
|Fri, May 26 8:44 AM April Durable Orders -0.7% vs -1.8%.|
|Fri, May 26 8:30 AM Q1 2017 2nd read on GDP revised higher to 1.2% from 0.7% and above the 0.8% expected.|
|Fri, May 26 8:23 AM The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon trades at 103.12, a level it has closed above just a few times since mid-November 2016.|
|Fri, May 26 8:21 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.23% from yesterday's close of 2.25%.|
|Fri, May 26 8:15 AM MBS open modestly higher as traders in Europe grow concerned over the upcoming U.K. elections and on weak economic data out of the Eurozone.|
|Fri, May 26 8:15 AM After the six-day winning streak, S&P futures slightly lower ahead of the 8:30 release of the second reading on Q1 2017 GDP.|
Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post. However any aspect of such may change without notice. Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet. I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly. Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com The cost of subscription is very reasonable.