Thursday

May 11th, 2017

Inflation at the wholesale level jumped in April from March due to a rise in prices for food and energy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5%, above the 0.2% expected and above the -0.1% registered in March. For the past 12 months, PPI surged 2.5%, the biggest rise since February 2012. The so-called Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, jumped 0.4%, above the 0.2% expected. The hotter wholesale inflation data pushed Bond prices into negative territory. The more closely watched Consumer Price Index will be released on Friday and will be dissected by the Federal Reserve.

Storied retailer Macy's reports that it will be closing 100 more stores after weak earnings hit the 158 year old company. Macy's numbers fell short on earnings, revenues and same-store sales as it struggles to keep existing customers, let alone gain any new ones. Competition from the likes of Amazon, TJX Cos' and Ulta Beauty have put a dent in sales while its exposure to many weaker malls fail to lure in shoppers.

Foreclosure activity fell to its lowest level since 2005 as the housing sector continues to improve. A reported 77,049 filings were recorded in April, down 7% from March and down a full 23% from April 2016 to the lowest level since November 2005. Foreclosure filings include default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions. Foreclosure activity continued to search for a new post-recession floor in April thanks in large part to the above-par performance of mortgages originated in the past seven years,” ATTOM senior vice president Daren Blomquist said

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

Thu, May 11 12:48 PM Stocks cut a big chunk of losses.
Thu, May 11 10:48 AM Despite the move lower in Stocks, MBS fail to push higher.
Thu, May 11 10:17 AM Freddie Mac reports that the 30-yr fixed conforming mortgage rate rose to 4.05% this week from 4.02% with 0.5 in points and fees.
Thu, May 11 9:47 AM Stock losses accelerating. Dow -90 points.
Thu, May 11 9:43 AM Foreclosure activity drops to lowest level since 2005, reports RealtyTrac.
Thu, May 11 9:38 AM Stocks open lower, but Bond prices continue to trade in negative territory.

9:17 AM ET  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 10 bp at a price of 102.06 down 28 bp when rates were set on Wednesday  at 10:00 am Open 102.16 High 102.38 Low 102.06

Numbers to watch for: 102.25 50 day moving average

                                 102.66  25 day moving average the market considers a selling oportunity

                                 101.94  The market may consider this a buying opportunity

 

Thu, May 11 8:57 AM S&P futures weighed down by dismal Macy's results.
Thu, May 11 8:50 AM MBS slip into negative territory after the hotter-than-expected PPI data.
Thu, May 11 8:38 AM Year-over-year PPI +2.5%, largest increase since moving up 2.8% for the 12 months ended February 2012.
Thu, May 11 8:31 AM March wholesale inflation or the Producer Price Index (PPI) +0.5% vs the 0.2% expected. Core PPI +0.4% vs 0.2% expected.
Thu, May 11 8:29 AM The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon opens below support at the 50- and 100-day Moving Averages.
Thu, May 11 8:23 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and wholesale inflation PPI will be released at 8:30.
Thu, May 11 8:22 AM U.S. dollar index 99.69, +0.13.
Thu, May 11 8:14 AM Bond prices have been capped this week due in part to the weak Treasury auction demand. Today, the Treasury will sell $15B 30-yr Bonds, results at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Thu, May 11 8:11 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.39%.
Thu, May 11 8:11 AM WTI oil at $47.91/barrel, +$0.58 due in part to the biggest decline in U.S. crude stockpiles so far this year, which was reported yesterday.
Thu, May 11 8:10 AM MBS open near unchanged while S&P futures edge lower as the closely watched index trades near all-time highs.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

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