May 10th, 2017
Boston Fed President Rosengren (non-FOMC voter, hawk) will be speaking at 12:00 p.m. ET and said that the Fed's balance sheet should start to be trimmed in 2017. Mr. Rosengren did say that if tapered, there would be room for the industry and the private sector to pick up the slack as the Fed gets less active in the market. He said, "I don’t think it’s going to be all that disruptive."
Mortgage rates were unchanged in the latest week and remain just above historically low levels. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday that the 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rate ($424,100 or less) remained at 4.23% last week, with points declining to 0.31 from 0.32. Similarly, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with jumbo loan balances (greater than $424,100) increased to 4.22% from 4.18% with 0.28 points. In addition, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage backed by the FHA increased to 4.09% from 4.06%, with 0.24 points.
Small business optimism across the U.S. remained at high levels in April, though future business conditions declined. The National Federation of Independent released its Small Business Optimism Index this week slipping by 0.2 points to 104.5. April was the sixth straight month for historically high optimism. Looking ahead, the failure of Congress to repeal and replace Obamacare and to address the high cost of health care sent future optimism considerably lower.
What Is Going On With Interest Rates? #wigowir
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
Commentary at the Close: MBS edged lower today, despite flat prices. There were no economic reports released today. The Bond closed at 102.12, -9bp. The Dow lost 32.67 points to 20,943.11, the S&P 500 was up 2.71 points to 2,399.63, while the NASDAQ gained 8.55 points to 6,129.14 in range bound trading. WTI oil was last seen at $47.33/barrel, +$1.45. 10-yr T Note yield 2.40%. Tomorrow's economic data includes PPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The Treasury will sell $15B 30-yr Bonds.
Wed, May 10 4:13 PM S&P closes near unchanged.
Wed, May 10 2:25 PM Dow sinks 75 points. S&P flat.
Wed, May 10 1:17 PM 10-yr T Note auction garners a "D" rating.
|Wed, May 10 1:03 PM Alert To Lock! Looks like weak auction results.|
|Wed, May 10 12:03 PM $23B 10-yr Note auction results at 1:00 p.m. ET.|
|Wed, May 10 11:27 AM Mortgage Bonds trade in a tight range this morning and are now near unchanged, having given up their meager gains. Stocks cut losses and trade to unchanged.|
|Wed, May 10 9:39 AM S&P trades modestly lower soon after the opening bell on Wall Street.|
|Wed, May 10 8:37 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (non-FOMC voter, hawk) will be speaking at 12:00 p.m. ET.|
|Wed, May 10 8:36 AM WTI oil $46.33/barrel, +$0.55.|
|Wed, May 10 8:35 AM The New York Fed will purchase up to $1.6B in 30-yr Fannie/Freddie 3.5% and 4% coupons between 11:15 and 11:45 a.m. ET.|
|Wed, May 10 8:35 AM At 1:00 p.m ET, the results from today's $23B 10-yr Note auction will be released.|
|Wed, May 10 8:28 AM There are no major economic reports due for release today.|
|Wed, May 10 8:27 AM The MBA reports that the purchase index rose 1.7% and is at its highest level since October 2015 while the refinance index was up 3.3%.|
|Wed, May 10 8:25 AM The MBA reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, rose 2.4% in the latest week.|
|Wed, May 10 8:24 AM The MBA reports that the 30-yr fixed conforming mortgage rate unchanged at 4.23%.|
|Wed, May 10 8:21 AM MBS open modestly higher.|
|Wed, May 10 8:21 AM S&P futures declining on the news that FBI Director Comey has been fired from his post by President Trump.|
|Wed, May 10 8:09 AM The Monthly Bond Rollover took place yesterday after the close of trading with the effect being -22bp for the Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon.|
Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post. However any aspect of such may change without notice. Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet. I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly. Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com The cost of subscription is very reasonable.