April 4th, 2017
Closing Comments: With the inability of the 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon to overtake resistance (R2: $102.72) Resistance is what traders consider as a sale signal. For this reason borrowers might consider this as a good time to lock in. Also prices are vulnerable at current levels and with a slew of headline risk between now and the Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday morning. If you want to know more about the Non-Farm Payrolls Report click on the following link: https://www.johnmarbury.com/blog/8964/what-is-the-non-farm-payrolls-reports
Not much movement in MBS today as traders look ahead to this week's headline risk events in ADP Payrolls, Fed minutes and the government's Jobs Report. Prices opened near unchanged and slid lower and remained in a holding pattern just below the flat line for most of the session. There were no economic reports released today. The Bond closed lower by 12bp to end at 102.56 from the session high of 102.72. Stocks closed slightly higher as the market eyes earnings season and the Trump summit with China's Xi. The Dow gained 39.03 points to 20,689.24, the NASDAQ was up a meager 3.92 points to 5,898.60, while the S&P 500 squeaked out a 1.32 point gain to 2,360.24. WTI oil closed at $51.03/barrel, +$0.79. 10-yr T Note yield 2.36%. Tomorrow's economic data includes March ADP Private Payrolls and March ISM Services.
What Is Going On With Interest Rates? #wigowir
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 12 bp at a price of 102.56 down 3 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.31 High 102.72 Low 102.31
|4:00 PM S&P closes near unchanged as investors eye earnings season.|
|2:21 PM The S&P 500 trades near unchanged as caution builds ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.|
|1:36 PM Fed Fund Futures show a near 55% chance of a hike to the Fed Funds Rate in June. No hike is expected at the May meeting.|
|1:21 PM Richmond Fed President Lacker will resign from the Federal Reserve today saying that he leaked confidential information in 2012 to Medley Global Advisors in 2012.|
|12:54 PM Near midday, MBS modestly lower, Stocks mixed. 10-yr yield 2.35% from this morning's low of 2.31%.|
|10:31 AM The Dow turns positive. Be on the lookout for a reversal lower in Mortgage Bond prices.|
|10:30 AM MBS lose a little ground and trade in a tight range for the past hour as they trade just below unchanged levels.|
|9:35 AM The S&P 500 opens modestly lower.|
|9:05 AM MBS edging lower, despite lower Stock futures.|
|8:28 AM Small business hiring edged lower in March after gains in the past three months, reports human resources solution firm Paychex.|
|8:14 AM WTI oil $50.47/barrel, +$0.25.|
|8:12 AM U.S. dollar index 100.53, +0.11.|
|8:09 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.31%, near unchanged.|
|8:08 AM MBS open near unchanged.|
|8:08 AM There are no major economic reports due for release today.|
|8:05 AM MBS look to open flat to higher as S&P futures edge lower as caution is seen ahead of the Trump and China's -XI meeting this week.|
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