Year over Year inflation is below Fed target of 2%

March 31st, 2017

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

9:38 AM  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up  6  bp at a price of 102.16 down 6 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 102.12 High 102.16 Low 102.12

 

Commentary 9:38 am: Currently mortgage bonds are trading in between the 50 day moving average (Black Line) and the 100 day moving average (Orange line).  In this morning’s news the Core PCE rose 1.8% year over year compared to 1.7%.  Core PCE is the Fed favorite gauge of inflation. The Fed’s would like to see inflation above 2% this is something that has not been seen for 9 years.  If we do not see inflation exceed 2%, the Fed will not have justification to continuing hiking rates 

 

 

 

8:40 AM February Core PCE 0.2%, inline, year-over-year 1.8% from 1.7%.
8:39 AM February Personal Income 0.4%, inline, Spending 0.1% vs 0.2%.
Fri, Mar 31 8:11 AM S&P futures lower.
Fri, Mar 31 8:10 AM WTI oil $50.19/barrel, near unchanged.
Fri, Mar 31 8:10 AM U.S. dollar index 100.37, +0.08.
Fri, Mar 31 8:09 AM 10-yr yield 2.41%.
Fri, Mar 31 8:08 AM MBS open near unchanged ahead of Personal Income & Spending, Core PCE at 8:30. Chicago PMI at 9:45, Consumer Sentiment at 10.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

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