March 30th, 2017
Commentary at the close: MBS gave back most of yesterday's gains in today's session as the seesaw trading pattern continues. The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon hit a high of 102.41 this week, a low of 101.94 only to close today at 102.09, -16bp. Stocks ended higher fueled by solid consumer spending and corporate profits within the GDP report. The Dow gained 69.17 points to 20,728.49, the NASDAQ was up 16.79 to 5,914.34, a record high close. The S&P rose by 6.93 points to end at 2,268.06. WTI oil closed at $50.35/barrel, +$0.84. 10-yr T Note yield 2.42%. Tomorrow's economic data features, Personal Income & Spending, Core PCE, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment.
What Is Going On With Interest Rates? #wigowir
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
|4:32 PM Fed's Dudley says rate hikes are appropriate to reduce the risk of overheating.|
|3:47 PM JPMorgan economist sees Fed shrinking balance sheet starting 2018.|
|3:02 PM Stocks holding gains after GDP showed robust consumer spending and robust corporate profits.|
|2:22 PM Stocks holding solid gains. After failing to break above critical resistance, MBS trade just above session lows. 10-yr yield edges higher to 2.41%.|
|12:02 PM MBS at session lows. Alert To Lock!|
|10:19 AM Stocks push well into positive territory. MBS at session lows. Be on guard for an Alert To Lock.|
|10:11 AM Freddie Mac reports that the 30-yr fixed rate mortgage fell to 4.16% this week from 4.23% in the previous week with 0.5 in points and fees.|
|9:36 AM Stocks open near unchanged.|
9:15 AM The 100 day moving average is currently 102.32.
9:14 AM 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 0 bp at a price of 102.25 up 9 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 102.25 High 102.28 Low 102.16
|9:04 AM Not much reaction in Bond prices from the GDP data.|
|8:44 AM Within GDP we see that consumer spending rose 3.5% from 3%, while corporate profits rise 9.3% from a year ago.|
|8:34 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims flat at 258K vs 245K expected. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/30/us-weekly-jobless-claims-mar-25-2017.html|
|8:33 AM Final Q4 2016 GDP 2.1% vs 1.9% from the second reading.http://www.businessinsider.com/us-gdp-growth-2016-q4-third-estimate-2017-3|
|8:18 AM WTI oil $49.46/barrel near unchanged.|
|8:17 AM U.S. dollar index 99.96, +0.12.|
|8:16 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.38%.|
|8:14 AM Stock futures modestly lower as the market looks for new catalysts heading into corporate earnings season.|
|8:10 AM MBS open near unchanged ahead of Fed speakers, GDP data at 9:30.|
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