100 day moving average is not our friend at this time

March 29th, 2017

Commentary at the close: MBS were able to gain back most of yesterday's losses as the Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed right where it closed on Monday. The better-than-expected February Pending Home Sales had little impact on trading. At the close3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 28 bp at a price of 102.25 up 9 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.06 High 102.28 Low 102.03 as you can see on the chart below that we have not closed above the 50 day moving average (orange line)since October 4th of 2016.  When traders are looking at patterns they may consider this a sale signal.  So if you are considering locking in a rate this might be a good time

Other news: Stocks closed mixed as the benchmark S&P 500 squeaked out a gain on strength in the energy sector. The Dow lost 42.18 points to 20,659.32 closing lower in 8 out of the last 10 trading session, the S&P gained 2.56 points to 2,361.13, while the NASDAQ was up 22.40 points to end at 5,897.54. WTI oil closed at a 3-week high of $49.51/barrel, +$1.14. 10-yr T Note yield 2.38%. Tomorrow's economic data includes GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

 

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

 

 

 

 

4:18 PM  Stocks close mixed. Dow lower, NASDAQ and S&P squeak out gains.

 

2:20 PM  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 19 bp at a price of 102.16 up 0 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.06 High 102.25 Low 102.03

 

2:11 PM MBS holding gains, Dow lower, NASDAQ and S&P holding small gains. 10-yr yield 2.39%.
1:25 PM Fed's Williams (non-voter) would not rule out more than three more rate hikes in 2017, but emphasis is on gradual pace; U.S. economy is as close to Fed's dual mandate (maximizing employment, stabilizing prices) as ever.
1:12 PM The $28B 7-yr Note auction garners an "B+" rating.
1:08 PM There is now a 53% chance for a rate hike by the end of the June 13-14 FOMC meeting.
1:05 PM Fed's Rosengren (non-voter) says there are signs that a "potentially overheating economy" is on the horizon.
12:16 PM Update to the incident on Capitol Hill - a female driver was apprehended after she nearly hit several officers and struck another vehicle. Capitol Hill police officers fired several shots in an attempt to stop the driver.
11:56 AM Fed's Rosengren believes four interest rate hikes this year are appropriate.
10:51 AM The S&P 500 turns positive.
10:27 AM The NASDAQ turns positive.
10:26 AM The better-than-expected Pending Home Sales data has little impact on the markets.
10:05 AM Shots fired at Capitol Hill, shooter in custody.
10:02 AM February Pending Home Sales +5.5% vs +2.4% expected.
9:56 AM Mortgage applications to refinance fell to near 9-yr lows this week, reports the MBA.
9:52 AM Bond prices able to gain back some of yesterday's losses as Stocks decline.
9:37 AM Stocks trade lower soon after the opening bell on Wall Street.
9:23 AM Fed's Evans says he supports one or two more rate hikes this year.

 

 

9:12 AM  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up  12  bp at a price of 102.12 down 22 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 102.06 High 102.09 Low 102.03 (Price up yield down, see picture above)

 

8:28 AM WTI oil +$0.23 to $48.60/barrel.
8:28 AM U.S. dollar index 99.88, +0.33.
8:27 AM 10-yr T Note yield edges lower to 2.39%.
8:26 AM The Treasury will sell $28B 7-yr Notes today, results at 1:00 pm.m. ET.
8:25 AM February Pending Home Sales will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
8:22 AM The MBAs purchase index +1.2%, refinance index -2.9%.
8:21 AM The MBAs Market Composite Index, a measure of total loan application volume, fell 0.8%.
8:18 AM The MBA reports that the 30-yr fixed conforming mortgage rate fell 13bp to 4.33%, jumbo rates declined 14bp to 4.26%, while the FHA rate declined to 4.24%.
8:17 AM A host of Fed members will be speaking throughout today's trading session.
8:15 AM S&P futures modestly lower after yesterday's gains snapped the 8-day losing streak for the Dow.
8:12 AM MBS open flat to modestly higher as the U.K. government invokes Article 50 to begin the formal process to leave the European Union.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

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