80 weeks and Counting 12:34pm yields are moving higher

March 23rd, 2017

What is the Word?

May - expressing possibility “that may be true”

At the close: 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 6 bp at a price of 102.00 down 19 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.00 High 102.25 Low 101.91 (You will notice that we have closed at the round number of 102 again.  The question is; Is this the top of the hill or the bottom of the valley?)

 

The Candles on the chart below of each of the past two days have long-upper wicks, which tell us that prices are not able to hold their intraday highs. Seeing this appear after a nice rally and right at a ceiling of resistance (R1 on the chart below) has our attention. Couple this with the uncertainty around what happens with the healthcare reform and it appears that prices may and the key word is may be topping out.

Stocks fell following the announcement that the healthcare reform vote would be delayed in the House from its original scheduled vote Thursday night. The Dow closed down -4.72 at 20656.58, the Nasdaq was down -3.95 to 5817.69, and the S&P was down -2.49 to 2345.96. WTI Crude lost .35 cents on the barrel to close at 47.69. Durable Goods Orders will be released tomorrow.

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

 

1:32 PM Markets swinging back and forth on soundbites…the latest suggesting that the votes are not there to pass it and voting today would be a bad idea.

 

12:34 PM 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 6 bp at a price of 102.00 down 19 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.00 High 102.25 Low 102.00 (When the price goes down rates go up. We are currently below 50 day moving average of 102.04. Hold on 102.)

12:19 PM  ALERT TO LOCK!
Thu, Mar 23 11:43 AM Rumors swirl that Keystone Pipeline will get approved by State Department by Monday…Stocks higher, Bonds slipping on the news.
Thu, Mar 23 11:11 AM It’s all about the healthcare reform vote tonight and the soundbites leading up to the vote.
11:02 AM Bonds losing some of its luster as Stocks turn higher.
10:06 AM February New Home Price 296K down 4.9%.
10:05 AM New Home Sales up 6.1% (February) to 258K vs. estimate of 241K.

 

 

9:18 AM 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 16 bp at a price of 102.22 down 3 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 102.00 High 102.25 Low 102.00 (Price up yields down. Rates should stay the same or get better today.)

 

 

8:52 AM U.S. dollar index 99.55 +0.08

8:34 AM Initial Jobless Claims up 15K to 258K vs the expected 240k.  Claims below 300k is a sign of a healthy econmy.  We have now done this for 80 straight weeks for the first, since 1970. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/us-weekly-jobless-claims-mar-18-2017.html.

8:15 AM S&P futures opens higher.

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

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