March 22nd, 2017
What is the Word?
verb (used without object)
Synonyms falter, waver, muddle.
Commentary at the Close
Mortgage-backed securities edging higher as stocks flounder with uncertainty around healthcare reform.
While Stocks gained some minor traction today, Mortgage Bonds still benefitted from the uncertainty in Washington as lawmakers in the House gear up for Thursday’s vote on healthcare reform. The FNMA 30-year 3.5% managed to stay above the 2nd level of resistance to close up 6 bp at 102.16 down 6 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.12 High 102.31 Low 102.06. This is really not much movement, but mortgage bonds are moving in the right direction. Remember when price is up yields come down.
Stock indexes were mixed. The Nasdaq closed at 5817.90 (up 24.07), the S&P at 2349.45 (up 5.43), and the Dow at 20661.30 (down 6.71). WTI Crude gained .03 cents on the barrel to close at 48.15. New Home Sales will be released tomorrow.
12 noon Commentary
As you can see there is green arrow on today's rate sheet which indicates that we have lower rates today. Existing Home Sales down 3.7% (February) to 5.48M compared to January's 5.69M. Lawrence Yun National Association of Realtors said closing retreated in February as too few properties up for sale and weakening affordability conditions stifled buyers in most of the country. https://www.forbes.com/sites/troymcmullen/2017/03/22/existing-home-sales-stumble-in-february/#7208ee125a75
Median Home Prices up 7.7% to $228,400 compared to $212,100 in 2016 Total Housing Inventory increased by 4.2% at the end of February, but this is 6.4% less than a year ago.
What Is Going On With Interest Rates? #wigowir
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
|4:06 PM The Fed will not be able to hike rates, until some of the economic policies like tax reform and healthcare reform get put into place and we actually see increases in inflation, jobs and growth.|
|3:39 PM Chatter about Fed starting to sell some of the balance sheet. We think it is noise until we see a couple more rate hikes.|
|3:18 PM Congress once again getting in way, leaving Fed as only game in town – uncertainty weighing on Stocks and helping Bonds.|
|2:26 PM 10-yr German Bund yield .40%.|
|1:38 PM Bonds battle another tough resistance area near 50-day MA.|
|12:59 PM WTI oil $47.85/barrel down 39 cents.|
|12:31 PM Bonds nicely off the lows of last week. 10-year yield moves from 2.61% last Tuesday to 2.39% as of this morning.|
|12:11 PM USD LIBOR 1-month .97%, 3-month 1.15%, 6-month 1.43%, 12-month 1.81%.|
Currently the price is up and yields are down. See below
11:15 AM 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 15 bp at a price of 102.25 up 6 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 102.12 High 102.31 Low 102.06
|10:45 AM Fundamental and technical trend remains in our favor, at the moment.|
|10:05 AM Existing Home Sales down 3.7% (February) to 5.48M compared to January's 5.69M. Home Prices up 7.7% to $228,400 compared to $212,100 in 2016.|
|10:01 AM U.S. dollar index 99.53 -0.84|
|9:43 AM Bonds slightly higher, Stocks slightly lower to start the day.|
|8:40 AM S&P futures opens lower.|
Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post. However any aspect of such may change without notice. Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet. I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly. Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com The cost of subscription is very reasonable.