102, can we close above this number?

March 21st, 2017

Commentary at the Close

 

Mortgage Bonds enjoyed a nice day, confirming a two day close above R1 at $101.62 and even moved above R2. Mortgage Bonds closed up 25 bp at 102.09. So the answer to today's title is yes we can close above 102.

 

The honeymoon phase in Washington D.C. may be officially over as uncertainty over healthcare and tax reform sent all three Stock indexes lower today, with the Dow closing at 20665.6 (down 240.26), the Nasdaq at 5792.25 (down 109.28), and the S&P at 2345.95 (down 27.52) – its lowest point since September 2016. Oil suffered another blow, with WTI Crude down .92 to 48.18. Existing Home Sales will be released tomorrow.

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

When the price is up yields go down.  This is nothing dramatic at this time.

11:33 AM 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 16 bp at a price of 102.00 up 19 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 101.66 High 102.00 Low 101.62

102 is one of those numbers with alot of zeroes that trade may consider a selling opportunity. If we can close above this number for a couple days 102 might become a buying opportunity.

11:22 AM Uncertainty about healthcare reform coming to pass is weighing big on Stocks and pushing Bonds higher.
11:17 AM WTI oil at $47.75/barrel down 47 cents.
10:59 AM Stocks slipping, Bonds building positive momentum.
10:17 AM USD LIBOR 1-month .97%, 3-month 1.15%, 6-month 1.43% 12-month 1.81%
9:56 AM Bonds now down just slightly and off the worst levels of the day, despite higher stocks. 

 

3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon down 15 bp at a price of 101.69 up 3 bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 101.66 High 101.69 Low 101.62

 

9:15 AM 10-yr German Bund yield .48%
8:57 AM U.S. dollar index 99.70 -0.53
8:03 AM S&P futures opens higher.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

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