February 24th, 2017
At the close: 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 31 bp at a price of 102.78 up 16 bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.59 High 102.81 Low 102.78
Commentary at the close: MBS rallied closing higher for three straight sessions as Stocks traded negative for most of the day. MBS shrug off positive economic data. Stocks traded in the red all day up until the close when the Bulls pushed prices into positive territory. The Dow gained 11.44 points to 20,821.76 for its 11th straight record high close. The S&P 500 rose 3.53 points to 2,367.34, while the NASDAQ was up 9.79 points to end the week at 5,845.30. WTI oil closed at $53.99/barrel, -$0.46. 10-yr yield 2.31%. Next week's economic calendar is packed with a broad array of reports that will cover a large portion of the U.S. economy. The Jobs Report will not be released next Friday, it will be released on March 10 due to the short month for February. To see what is coming out and when next week go to our economic calendar at: http://www.johnmarbury.com/blog/8431/february-calendar-of-economic-reports
It will be interesting next week to see if we can continue on this positive swing. On the chart below and above, it appears that bonds are in the danger based on recent history.
What Is Going On With Interest Rates? #wigowir
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
4:00 PM Stocks edge into positive territory at the close. Eleven straight closing highs for the Dow, finishing at 20,819.
3:02 PM MBS move to fresh session highs.
1:46 PM Past midday, MBS holding solid gains, Stocks lower. 10-yr yield 2.32%.
12:39 PM The Dow is on track to break its 10-day run of record high closes.
10:41 AM MBS at session highs, 10-yr yield 2.33%.
10:28 AM Stock rally fizzles as the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P fall further into negative territory.
10:05 AM Final February Consumer Sentiment 96.3 vs 95.8 expected.
10:03 AM January New Home Sales +3.7% from December to an annual rate of 555K, though below the estimates of 566K.
9:51 AM Stocks lower but off worst levels.
8:36 AM After the recent rally, resistance at the 50-day Moving Average (102.12) now becomes support for the Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon.
8:30 AM WTI oil $54.01/barrel, -$0.45.
8:29 AM Consumer Sentiment and New Home Sales will be released at 10:00.
8:15 AM U.S. dollar index 100.73, -0.31.
8:01 AM Bond prices are being boosted by falling Stock futures as equity investors look to take some profits with the major indices at record levels.
8:01 AM The 10-yr T Note yield declines to 2.36% from last Wednesday's high of 2.52%.
8:00 AM MBS look to open higher as the Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon has moved to 102.47 from last week's low of 101.69.
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