Above the 50 day moving avg for the first time since 1/17/17

February 6th, 2017

Commentary at the Close: With the close above resistance one (R1) at the 50-day Moving Average (102.19) sends a bullish tone, but we need to see a second consecutive close above that level to break out the party hats.  

MBS started the day higher, then quickly gave up those gains, only to rally and close higher for the session as risk off was the key. There were no economic reports released today. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 102.41, +25bp. Stocks ended lower. The Dow lost 19.04 points to 20,052.42, the S&P 500 fell by 4.86 points to 2,292.56, while the Nasdaq was down 3.21 points to 5,663.55. WTI oil closed at $53.01, -$0.82. 10-yr yield 2.41%. There are no scheduled major economic reports tomorrow. The Treasury will sell $24B 3-yr Notes, results at 1:00 p.m. ET.

9:12 AM  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 18 bp at a price of 102.34 up 9bp when rates were set Friday at 10:00 am Open 102.28 High 102.44 Low 102.28 We are currently trading above the 25 day moving average (Green Line) and the 50 day moving average (Black line and R1). 

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

3:48 PM Bond prices rise, yields lower as investors pare risk assets.

3:15 PM MBS holding gains as they trade in a tight range this afternoon.

1:20 PM Just past midday, MBS back at session highs, Stocks back in negative territory.

11:28 AM Fed buying boosts MBS prices off the session lows.

10:39 AM MBS able to bounce off lows.

10:18 AM MBS could get a boost around 11:15 a.m. ET when the New York Fed will purchase up to $1.625B in 30-yr Fannie/Freddie 3s and 3.5s.

10:13 AM The Dow turns positive.

10:12 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon is now at session lows.

9:42 AM Stocks cutting into some losses, MBS off highs.

9:41 AM U.S. dollar index 100.07, +0.23.

9:31 AM As expected, Stocks open lower amid political uncertainty.

 

 

8:40 AM The New York Fed will be purchasing up to $1.625B today in Fannie/Freddie 3s and 3.5s beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET.

8:31 AM WTI oil $53.67/barrel, near unchanged.

8:26 AM The New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady orchestrated the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history as they defeated the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime.

8:25 AM 10-yr T Note yield falls to 2.41% vs Friday's close of 2.49%.

8:24 AM This week, the Treasury will sell $24B 3-yr Notes on Tuesday, $23B 10-yr Notes on Wednesday and $15B 30-yr Bonds on Thursday.

8:19 AM There are no economic reports due for release today and the rest of the week is extremely light with just jobless claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

8:15 AM The strong payrolls report for January was accompanied by tepid wage growth, which could keep the Fed on a gradual path of interest rate hikes.

8:08 AM MBS open higher as S&P futures decline as equity investors look for the next catalyst to push prices higher.

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Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

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