Non Farm Payrolls

February 3rd, 2017

Commentary at the close: Volatility was the word early in today's trading session as the Fannie Mae 30-year 3.5% coupon opened at 102.09, traded down to 101.91, then to 102.44, only to close at 102.12, near unchanged, right where it started the day. The failure of the Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon to remain above resistance at the 50-day Moving Average and subsequent decline sends a rather bearish tone.  The mixed numbers in the Jobs Report the culprit. The headline number was strong at 227K jobs created in January, but wages were tepid and revisions for prior months were lower. Stocks rallied on the jobs numbers. The Dow gained 186.55 points to 20,071.46, the S&P 500 was up 16.57 points to 2,297.42, while the Nasdaq was up 30.57 points to end at 5,666.77. WTI oil rose by $0.29 to $53.83/barrel. 10-yr T Note yield 2.47%. Next week is on the quiet side as far as economic reports. The Treasury will sell $24B 3-yr Notes on Tuesday, $23B 10-yr Notes on Wednesday and $15B 30-yr Bonds on Thursday. Have a great weekend and enjoy the Super Bowl!

Commentary 8:49 AM - We are now trading above the 50 day moving average.  A good sign for rates if we can stay above this moving average

 

8:30 AM Here are the numbers:http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/03/us-nonfarm-payrolls-jan-2017.html

 

Jobs on deck — What you need to know in markets on Friday

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-on-deck-what-you-need-to-know-in-markets-on-friday-2-234656285.html

 

Below is what the market is reporting, expecting and what was reported last month.

 

Friday, February 3, 2017

ReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
8:30:00 AMNon-Farm PayrollsJan170K227K156KHIGH
8:30:00 AMAverage Work WeekJan34.334.434.3HIGH
8:30:00 AMUnemployment RateJan4.70%4.80%4.70%HIGH
8:30:00 AMHourly EarningsJan0.30%0.10%0.40%HIGH

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

4:16 PM  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 3 bp at a price of 102.12 down 12bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.09 High 102.44 Low 101.91

2:31 PM The Dow climbs above the 20,000 mark.

2:11 PM President Trump signs executive order to overhaul Dodd-Frank.

1:46 PM Alert To Lock!

1:21 PM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon slips below resistance at the 50-day Moving Average.

1:10 PM At midday, MBS holding gains, off highs. Stocks higher holding solid gains. 10-yr T Note edges up to 2.45% from 2.43% seen earlier in the day.

10:47 AM MBS back near session highs.

10:47 AM Dow +150 points. 10-yr yield edges lower to 2.43%.

10:02 AM January ISM Services at 56.5, just below the 57 expected and down from 57.2 in December.

9:33 AM Fed's Evans says the central bank should move gradually on rate hikes.

9:31 AM MBS now well off the highs as Stocks surge at the open. Dow +115 points.

9:12 AM MBS push well into positive territory.

8:49 AM  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 25 bp at a price of 102.34 up 16bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 102.09 High 102.34 Low 101.91

8:44 AM MBS pushing higher.

8:40 AM The push-pull jobs data leaves MBS near unchanged, Stock futures higher.

8:35 AM November and December job growth revised lower by a total of 39K.

8:39 AM  3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 3 bp at a price of 102.12 down 6bp when rates were set yesterday at 10:00 am Open 102.09 High 102.28 Low 101.91

8:33 AM The Unemployment Rate ticks up to 4.8% from 4.7%.

8:32 AM January Non-farm Payrolls +227K vs 170K expected.

8:32 AM However, average hourly earnings +0.1% vs 0.3% expected, while December was revised lower to 0.2% from 0.4%.

8:19 AM The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.7%.

8:14 AM S&P futures higher ahead of the data, but that can all change in a heartbeat.

8:13 AM WTI oil $53.73/barrel, +$0.19.

8:12 AM U.S dollar index 100.06, +0.27.

8:09 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.48%.

8:07 AM MBS open modestly lower ahead of the release of the jobs data at 8:30 a.m. ET.

8:01 AM It's Jobs Friday where it is expected that employers added 170K new jobs in January.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

Mission Statement

As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

Sign Up Now!