February 2nd, 2017
Commentary at the close: Flat Stock prices lifted Mortgage Bonds in today's session ahead of tomorrow's closely watched Jobs Report for January. Traders tried to keep positions flat ahead of tomorrow's news.
3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 16 bp at a price of 102.12 down 3bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.06 High 102.25 Low 102.06. You will notice on the chart below that the bond touched R1 (50 day moving Average 102.22) before pulling back.
The Jobs Report for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Stocks closed near unchanged. The Dow closed near unchanged at 19,884.91, the S&P also closed near unchanged at 2,280.85 as did the Nasdaq at 5,636.19. WTI oil closed at $53.54/barrel, down $0.34. As mentioned, the January Jobs Report will be released tomorrow morning. As always, be sure to tune in around 8:30 a.m. ET.
Commentary 7:00 AM Non Farm Payrolls comes out typically on the first Friday of every month. This can have a bigger impact than any other report of the month. Many times it is much to do about nothing, but if the market is surprised by the report, estreme volatility can occur. Keep in mind that volatility can be a good or bad.
The following are the pages from this blog the last 3 times the report has come out. This will help you with your expectation for the day.
January 6, 2017 http://www.johnmarbury.com/blog/8117/non-farm-payrolls-
December 2, 2016 http://www.johnmarbury.com/blog/7853/non-farm-payrolls-
November 4, 2016 http://www.johnmarbury.com/blog/7674/non-farm-payrolls-
Nonfarm payroll is a monthly report generated and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of ...
Out of the payroll data that is provided, the most important statistic that is analyzed is the non-farm payroll data, which represents the total number of paid U.S. ...
|Friday, February 3, 2017||Report||For||Estimate||Actual||Prior||Impact|
|8:30:00 AM||Non-Farm Payrolls||Jan||170K||156K||HIGH|
|8:30:00 AM||Average Work Week||Jan||34.3||34.3||HIGH|
|8:30:00 AM||Unemployment Rate||Jan||4.70%||4.70%||HIGH|
|8:30:00 AM||Hourly Earnings||Jan||0.30%||0.40%||HIGH|
What Is Going On With Interest Rates? #wigowir
Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.
3:21 PM The S&P 500 trades near unchanged.
2:57 PM Stocks trade back into negative territory.
2:37 PM MBS trade in a tight range for the past few hours holding gains.
1:17 PM Home improvement chain store Lowe's plans to hire 45,000 for spring rush.
1:00 PM At midday, MBS higher as Stocks hover near unchanged. 10-yr yield 2.46%.
12:21 PM MBS at session lows.
12:21 PM We are advising locking loans that are short-term headed into tomorrow' Jobs Report, less than a month out.
12:09 PM Stocks fall back into negative territory.
11:42 AM Next week, the Treasury will sell $24B 3-yr Notes on Tuesday, $23B 10-yr Notes on Wednesday and $15B 30-yr Bonds on Thursday.
11:17 AM In today's Daily Market Update we advised locking ahead of tomorrow's Jobs Report for January.
11:14 AM Stocks trade into positive territory, MBS off highs.
10:39 AM 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon up 25 bp at a price of 102.22 up 3bp when rates were set today at 10:00 am Open 102.06 High 102.25 Low 102.06
10:07 AM Freddie Mac reports that the 30-yr fixed mortgage rate ($424K or less) was unchanged this week at 4.19% with 0.5 in points and fees.
9:45 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon trades up to resistance at the 50-day Moving Average.
9:34 AM Heightening tensions between President Trump and world leaders weighs on Stocks at the open.
9:32 AM Stocks open modestly lower. Dow -50 points.
9:00 AM Outplacement firm reports that employers announced 45,934 payroll cuts in January, +37% from December due in part to corporate downsizing in the retail sector. Cuts were 39% lower than January 2016.
8:39 AM The New York Fed will be purchasing up to $1.875B in Fannie/Freddie 30-yr 35s and 4s this morning beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET.
8:36 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims decline by 14K to 246K vs 250K expected.
8:32 AM Q4 Productivity +1.3% vs 1% expected, down from 3.5% in Q3. Productivity is an assessment of the efficiency of a worker or group of workers.
8:28 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Q4 Productivity numbers at 8:30.
8:27 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon rises, but stiff resistance at the 50-day Moving Average is just overhead.
8:21 AM On Ground Hog Day, Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter is in store.
8:20 AM WTI oil $54.02/barrel, near unchanged.
8:19 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.45% from yesterday's close of 2.47%.
8:15 AM The U.S. dollar index declines on the dovish Fed statement.
8:14 AM The uncertainty surrounding monetary policy is pushing Stock futures lower this morning.
8:13 AM The Fed gave no hints of the next rate hike yesterday.
8:10 AM The Fed said gradual rate increases will be data dependent. The Fed Funds Rate remains at 0.50-0.75%. That leaves the Prime at 3.75%, which is the Fed Funds Rate + 3 points.
8:09 AM The Fed left its benchmark interest rate, the Fed Funds Rate, unchanged yesterday with a rather dovish accompanying monetary policy statement. The odds for a March rate hike has now decreased to 17% from 25% before the Fed announcement.
Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post. However any aspect of such may change without notice. Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet. I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly. Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com The cost of subscription is very reasonable.