Existing Home Sales highest in nearly 10 years

December 21st, 2016

 

 

 

Commentary: The MBS basis put in another good performance as the one-way trade tighter continued, though again on light trading volumes.  The close above 101.34 for the Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon sends a bullish tone. The bonds appear to be building a foundation for further gains and lower rates. See chart below for more details. Time will tell what is next on the horizon.


WRAP: MBS were able to edge higher in today's session as the blistering Stock rally paused. The Bond closed at 101.59, +19bp and is up 75bp since the multi-year lows hit last Thursday. The near inline November Existing Home Sales had little impact on the markets. The Dow lost 32.66 points to 19,941.96, the S&P 500 fell 5.58 points to 2,265.18, while the Nasdaq was down 12.51 points to end the quiet session at 5,471.43. WTI oil closed at $52.49, -$0.71. 10-yr T Note yield 2.54%.

 

Today's Agenda:

 

Date & Time of ReportReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
12/21/16 10:00:00 AMExisting Home Salesoct5.50M5.615.57MModerate

 

Tomorrow's Agenda:

 

Date & Time of ReportReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
12/22/16 8:30 AMJobless Claims12/17256k 254kModerate
 Personal Comsumption Expenditures (Core PCE)Nov0.10% 0.10%HIGH
 Personal Comsumption Expenditures (Core PCE)YOYNA 1.70%HIGH
 Personal SpendingNov0.40% 0.30%Moderate
 Personal IncomeNov0.30% 0.6%%Moderate
 GDP Chain DeflatorQ31.40% 1.40%Moderate
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Q33.30% 3.20%Moderate
 Durable GoodsNov-4.50% 4.80%Moderate

 

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

2:02 PM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon able to trade above the 101.34 level, now at 101.53, +12bp.

12:47 PM Narrow trading ranges persist today in Stock, Treasury and Mortgage Bond markets as conviction on the part of buyers and sellers has been lacking.

11:25 AM Mortgage Bonds trade in an extremely tight range this morning, while Stocks grind just below unchanged levels.

10:05 AM November Existing Home Sales +0.7% from October to 5.61 million annualized units vs the 5.50 million expected.

 

U.S. home resales unexpectedly rose in November, reaching their highest level in nearly 10 years, likely as buyers rushed into the market to lock in low interest rates in anticipation of further increases in borrowing costs.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/existing-home-sales-for-november-2016.html

9:36 AM Stocks open flat to slightly lower.

9:22 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon rises above the key technical level of 101.34, now at 101.44.

8:38 AM The MBAs Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, rose 2.5% in the latest week. The refi index +3%, purchase index +3%.

8:29 AM The MBA reports that 30-yr fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417K or less) rose to 4.41%, highest since May 2014.

8:23 AM The U.S. dollar index 102.90, -0.37 as the greenback trades near a 14-yr high.

8:18 AM The Dow (19,974) and the Nasdaq (5,483) begin the trading day in record territory. The S&P (2,270) is just below its all-time high close of 2,271.

8:17 AM 10-yr yield 2.58%.

8:17 AM WTI oil continues to edge higher now at $53.64, +$0.33.

8:14 AM November Existing Home Sales will be released at 10:00 a.m.

8:12 AM S&P futures near unchanged.

8:09 AM MBS open modestly lower after two days of gains and after bouncing off two-year lows late last week.

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  Most of the information posted on this blog along with the charts and indexes are available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com  The cost of subscription is very reasonable.

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