Non Farm Payrolls

December 2nd, 2016

Commentary:  With 3.5%% MBS closing above the two layere of support on the chart belowS1 S102.47 and S2 $102.22, we may have seen rates stablize.  Stay tuned to find out if this turns out to be the case.

 

WRAP: The somewhat negative November Non-farm Payrolls data along with bargain basement prices sent MBS higher during today's session, though they did close off their best levels. The Bond closed at 102.59, +31bp. Today's Jobs Report left Stock prices near unchanged at the close. The Dow lost 21.51 points to 19,170.42, the S&P closed near unchanged at 2,191.95, while the Nasdaq closed slightly higher by 4.55 points to end at 5,255.65. WTI oil closed at $51.68/barrel, +$0.62. 10-yr T Note yield 2.39%. Next week's economic calendar is on the light side.

 

Today's agenda:

Date & Time of ReportReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
12/2/16 8:30 AMNon-Farm PayrollsNov180k 178k161KHIGH
 Average Work WeekNov34.434.4 34.4HIGH
 Unemployment RateNov4.90%  4.6%4.90%HIGH
 Hourly EarningsNov0.20%-0.10%0.40%HIGH

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.  

 

 

3:34 PM The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon trades back down near support one (S1) at 102.47, now at 102.53.

3:32 PM S&P turns slightly positive.

1:33 PM According to the Labor Department, a record 95,055,000 Americans were out of the workforce in November. This means that they were neither employed nor had made an effort to find work over the previous month.

12:49 PM At midday, MBS holding solid gains. Stocks mixed. 10-yr yield 2.37%.

10:43 AM The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon trades back up resistance one (R1) at 102.75.

10:40 AM 10-yr T Note yield edges lower to 2.38%.

10:31 AM The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon hits a session high and is well into positive territory.

10:30 AM Stocks mixed ... Dow -25 points, S&P +2.60 points, Nasdaq near unchanged.

9:39 AM Part-time jobs jumped by 118,000 in November while full-time positions rose 9,000.

9:34 AM Dow, S&P open lower.

8:47 AM S&P futures edge lower as the jobs data has cemented a rate hike at the December 13-14 FOMC meeting.

8:33 AM MBS hold and add slightly to gains

8:31 AM November Non-farm Payrolls rise by 178K vs the 180K expected.

8:11 AM Fed Fund Futures show a 100% chance of a 0.25% hike to the Fed Funds Rate at the FOMC meeting December 13-14.

8:09 AM U.S. dollar index 101.04, -0.05.

8:07 AM MBS open higher.

8:04 AM WTI oil takes a breather after the 2-day rally, which was touched off by OPEC's pledge to cut production ... now at $50.56/barrel, -0.51.

8:01 AM Ahead of the data, S&P futures are slightly lower.

8:01 AM The 10-yr T Note yield edges lower to 2.42% compared to yesterday's close of 2.44%.

8:00 AM The November Jobs Report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET where it is expected Non-farm Payrolls increased by 180K.

8:00 AM The Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.9%.

 

 

On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.

 

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