Today is ADP Wednesday next up Non Farm Payroll Friday

November 30th, 2016

Commentary: Nothing like a little oil production cut to completely shake up the Bond market. Despite the losses, we are comforted by the Bond’s ability to bounce off and remain above support at the closing lows of 2016. This doesn’t mean we are out of the woods, but at the very least prices haven’t stepped another leg lower.  The following are  levels of support that can be seen on the chart below:  The green line S1 ($102.47) andS2 ($102.22)  

 

WRAP: Month-end saw MBS push lower on inflation news out of Europe and after OPEC announced a cut in production. However, Bond prices ended well off their lows as U.S. equities pushed lower and generated a somewhat flight-to-quality. Positive economic data also weighted on Bond prices. The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon closed lower by 50bp to end at 102.56. Stocks rallied throughout the day but ended near unchanged at the close. The Dow closed near unchanged at 19,123.58, the S&P fell 5,85 points to 2,198.81, while the Nasdaq lost 56.24 points to end the session at 5,323.68. WTI oil closed at 49.44/barrel, +$4.22. 10-yr yield 2.38%.

 
Tomorrow’s Agenda:

The ISM Manufacturing Index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production, inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries.

ISM Manufacturing Index Definition | Investopedia

www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ism-mfg.asp

Date & Time of ReportReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
12/1/16 8:30 AMJobless Claims (initial)26-Nov253k 251kModerate
12/1/16 10:00 AMISM IndexNov52.1 51.90High

What is the  'ADP National Employment Report?'

A report that measures levels of non-farm private employment. The ADP National Employment Report is based on payroll data from over half of ADP's U.S. business clients. The data represents about 24 million employees from all 19 of the major North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) private industrial sectors.

 

Today's Agenda:

Date & Time of ReportReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
11/30/16 8:15 AMADP National Emp ReportNov160k216k119kHIGH
11/30/16 8:30 AMPersonal Comsumption Expenditures (Core PCE)Oct0.10%0.10%0.10%HIGH
 Personal Comsumption Expenditures (Core PCE)YOYNA1.70%1.70%HIGH
 Personal SpendingOct0.50%0.40%0.50%Moderate
 Personal IncomeOct0.40%0.60%0.30%Moderate
11/30/16 9:45 AMChicago PMINov5257.650.60%Moderate
11/30/16 10:00 AMPending Home SalesOct0.70%0.10%1.50%Moderate

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

The chart below was posted at the close, and is available all during the day to the subscrbers of www.themortgagemarketguide.com

 

2:58 PM The S&P slips into negative territory.

2:00 PMThe Fed's Beige Book reveals that economic growth was modest to moderate across most regions.

 

1:25 PM Freddie Mac's monthly Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMi) indicates continued strength in the state of the housing market in September. The index rose 0.42% to 86.02 as stable conditions in the sector are between 80-120. The index is at its highest level since August 2008.

1:08 PM At midday, MBS lower. Dow, S&P higher while Nasdaq is in negative territory. WTI oil $49.21/barrel, +4$. 10-yr yield 2.37%.

12:37 PM Fed's Mester says a rate hike now would help the economy and would prolong the current economic expansion.

12:29 PM MBS trade in a tight range for the past hour.

10:35 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon bounces off the early lows and trades back to resistance, though still in negative territory.

10:22 AM The Nasdaq Composite turns negative.

10:21 AM Stocks giving up some gains.

10:05 AM The Fed's Beige Book will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET today.

10:03 AM October Pending Home Sales +0.1% vs the 0.7% expected.

10:02 AM November Chicago PMI rises to 57.6 vs the 52 expected.

9:32 AM Stocks open higher with modest gains ... Dow +75 points and did hit a record high of 19,200.

9:21 AM prices are off 53 basis points this morning, giving away gains from the last couple of days.

 
 

8:57 AM Consumer prices saw their highest year-over-year inflation in more than two years in the Eurozone, which is also pressuring Bond prices lower here in the States.

8:41 AM Personal Incomes rise by 0.6% in October vs the 0.4% expected, Spending +0.4% vs the 0.5% expected.

8:41 AM October Core PCE 0.1%, inline, year-over-year 1.7%, unchanged.

8:24 AM U.S. dollar index 101.29, +0.34.

8:20 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.36% from yesterday's close of 2.30%.

8:15 AM ADP reports that private payrolls rose 216K in November, above the 160K expected. October revised lower to 119K from 147K.

8:12 AM The MBA reports that the 30-yr fixed conventional mortgage rate ($417K or less), rose to the 2016 high of 4.23%. Jumbo rates 4.18%, FHA rates 4%.

8:10 AM MBS open lower in sympathy with falling Treasury prices after the OPEC news hit the wires.

7:57 AM Economic data out this morning Personal Income & Spending, Core PCE, ADP Private Payrolls, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales.

7:56 AM S&P futures higher on the OPEC news.

7:56 AM WTI oil $48.23/barrel, +$3.

7:54 AM WTI oil gushes higher on reports that OPEC will reduce output by 1.4 million barrels a day and that non-OPEC oil producers will cut by 600K barrels per day.

 

 

On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.

 

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