Consumer Confidence Comes out the last Tuesday of every month

November 29th, 2016

Commentary: The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon has gained about 80 basis points since last Wednesday’s intraday low of 102.22. Prices are battling that 103.0 area of resistance, that was once a level of strong support. A break confidently above this level could usher in more bond buying. There is the potential of volatility coming with Friday’s Non Farm Payroll Report. See Calendar for more expectations and last months figures by clicking on the following link:http://www.johnmarbury.com/blog/7833/this-weeks-economic-calendar-starting-112816

Wrap: Mortgage Bonds rallied from the early morning lows as buyers sought out bargains and as the New York Fed provided support through its continued purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities. Weakness was seen early on after positive GDP and Consumer Confidence data. The Bond closed at 103.03, +16bp and up from the intraday low of 102.69. Stocks closed with modest gains led by healthcare shares. The Dow rose by 23.70 points to 19,121.60, the Nasdaq was up 11.10 points to 5,379.91, while the S&P closed at 2,204.66, +2.94 points. WTI oil closed at $45.23/barrel, -$1.85. 10-yr T Note yield 2.29%. Tomorrow's economic data includes ADP Private Payrolls, Personal Income & Spending, Core PCE, Pending Home Sales and the Chicago PMI.

Tomorrow's Agenda

Date & Time of ReportReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
11/30/16 8:15 AMADP National Emp ReportNov160k 147kHIGH
11/30/16 8:30 AMPersonal Comsumption Expenditures (Core PCE)Oct0.10% 0.10%HIGH
 Personal Comsumption Expenditures (Core PCE)YOYNA 1.70%HIGH
 Personal SpendingOct0.50% 0.50%Moderate
 Personal IncomeOct0.40% 0.30%Moderate

Today's Agenda:

Date & Time of ReportReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
11/29/16 8:30 AMGDP Chain DeflatorQ31.50%1.4%1.50%Moderate
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Q33.00%3.2%2.90%Moderate
11/29/16 9:00 AMS&P/Case-Shiller Home PriceAug5.20% 5.20%5.10%Moderate
11/29/16 10:00 AMConsumer ConfidenceOct100 107.198.6Moderate

 

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.  

 

The indexes and the chart below were posted at the close.  As you can see on the 3.5% coupon that we are poking our head just above the $103 mark mentioned above.  

 

 

 

3:35 PM Shoppers spent $3.45 billion on Cyber Monday, marking the largest online sales day in U.S. history.

1:01 PM At midday MBs, Stocks holding gains. 10-yr yield 2.31%. WTI oil $45.16/barrel down $1.94 on speculation that a production cut will not happen at the OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow.

 

12:28 PM The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon hits the second layer of resistance (R2) at 103.0

12:18 PM The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon able to hit session highs on the heels of the New York Fed buying.

10:51 AM The New York Fed will be be purchasing up to $2.5B in Fannie/Freddie 30-yr 3s and 3.5s beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET.

10:28 AM The S&P continues to hover near unchanged levels, despite better-than-expected economic data. Investors may be booking some profits after the recent record highs.

10:02 AM November Consumer Confidence surges to 107.1, well above the 100 expected as consumer spending increases.

9:35 AM The S&P 500 trades near unchanged soon after the market opens.

9:02 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index sees home prices rise 5.2% annually, inline with estimates.

9:01 AM WTI oil -$1.78 to $45.27/barrel on doubts of a production cut at tomorrow's OPEC meeting in Vienna.

 

8:39 AM MBS edge lower after the GDP data.

8:30 AM Q3 second estimate for GDP at 3.2%, above the 2.9% from the first reading and just above the estimate of 3.0%.

-gdp q1 2 3 8:22 AM Fed Fund Futures are showing a 100% probability of a hike in the short-term Fed Funds rate at the FOMC meeting.

8:19 AM U.S. dollar index 101.54, +0.17 as the greenback continues to push higher, due in part to a perceived Fed Funds Rate hike at the December 13-14 FOMC meeting.

8:18 AM The 10-yr T Note yield 2.32%, near unchanged.

8:14 AM The Case-Shiller 20-city Index will be released at 9, Consumer Confidence at 10.

8:13 AM MBS open near unchanged after yesterday's rally and ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET release of Q3 GDP, second estimate.

 

On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.

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John Marbury
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