Are we going to bounce off $102.22?

November 28th, 2016

MBS put in an impressive performance today, surely the best since the post-election rout, as the 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon gained back most of last week's losses. With the post-election Trump rally getting a little long in the tooth, Stock prices fell today, which boosted Bond prices while lowering yields and yes we did bounce today. Tomorrow is a new day, so stay tuned.

 

WRAP: After hitting 2-year lows on Wednesday and Friday of last week, MBS were able to rally today as buyers stepped in along with the Fed to propel Bond prices higher. There were no economic reports released today. The 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon gained 41bp to end at 102.88, above the first level of resistance (R1) at 102.75, which was formerly support. Stocks paused and fell modestly today as the post-election Trump rally fizzled a bit. The Dow lost 54.24 points to 19,097.90, the S&P 500 fell 11.63 points to 2,201.72, while the Nasdaq was down 30.11 points to end at 5,368.81. WTI oil was up $1.02 to $47.08/barrel. The 10-yr T Note yield edged lower to 2.31%. Tomorrow's economic data includes the second estimate for Q3 GDP, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index and Consumer Confidence. see below for last month's results and the expectation for this month.

Date & Time of ReportReportForEstimateActualPriorImpact
11/29/16 8:30 AMGDP Chain DeflatorQ31.50% 1.50%Moderate
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Q33.00% 2.90%Moderate
11/29/16 9:00 AMS&P/Case-Shiller Home PriceAug5.20% 5.10%Moderate
11/29/16 10:00 AMConsumer ConfidenceOct100 98.6Moderate

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

2:33 PM Buyers come out of the woodwork today as MBS hit session highs with frothy gains.

12:51 PM At midday, MBS holding gains. S&P lower. 10-yr yield 2.32%. WTI oil $47.26/barrel, +$1.21. 30-yr fixed conventional mortgage rate, 4.03% with 0.5 in points/fees, says Freddie Mac.

11:50 AM MBS at fresh session highs.

10:52 AM Stocks rally fizzles out, prices pushing lower.

10:40 AM Ohio State says active shooter on its campus. Seven people have been transported to local hospitals.

10:31 AM MBS hit session highs, despite Stocks cutting into some losses.

10:09 AM The FHFA announced that the 2017 conforming loan limit for mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be increased nationwide from $417,000 to $424,100.

9:58 AM The National Retail Federation reports that 154 million consumers spent their hard-earned dollars over the Thanksgiving Day Weekend. Shoppers spent an average of $289, down from $300 last year.

Chart below posted at 9:52 AM

 
 
9:51 AM Stocks open lower, but the losses are contained. Dow -48 points.

9:19 AM MBS gains accelerate.

9:10 AM The New York Fed will be purchasing up to $2.5B in Fannie/Freddie 30-yr 3s and 3.5s later this morning.

8:23 AM There are no economic reports set for release today.

8:21 AM Big week for economic data culminating with Friday's Non-farm Payrolls for November where it is expected that employers added 180K workers. Check out this week's reports by going to the MMG website to "Data" then "Economic Calendar."

8:19 AM WTI oil +$0.51 at $46.57/barrel as the market feels a cut in production will come out of this week's OPEC meeting.

8:18 AM U.S dollar index 101.47, -0.07.

8:17 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.32%, down from Friday's close of 2.27%.

8:15 AM S&P futures lower after the Nasdaq (5,398), Dow (19,152) and the S&P 2,213) closed at post-election record highs last week.

8:13 AM After bouncing off support at 102.12 on Friday, which was the low of 7/13/15 for the 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon, Mortgage Bond prices have opened higher this morning

 

On October 5th we started posting our rates and leaving them on the site for you to refer back to. This will allow  you see where actual rates have been along with the news that caused the fluctuations on the rate sheet.  I ask that you forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes. This is due writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.

 

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