The Election

November 8th, 2016

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Commentary:

MBS prices closed lower with spread narrowly changed as Treasury yields rose with markets betting on a win for the presidency by Hillary Clinton. The MBS closed below the 200-day Moving Average for the first time in 2016. It will be interesting to see how the markets react if and when a winner is announced. Stay tuned to this site for the reaction tomorrow.
 

MARKET WRAP:

MBS ended lower today after the benchmark 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon fell through support and as Stocks pushed higher on bets of a Clinton win. There were no economic reports released today. The benchmark 3% Fannie Mae coupon closed at 102.84, -9bp. The Dow gained 72.83 points to 18,332.43, the S&P 500 gained 8.01 points to 2,139.53, while the Nasdaq was up 27.31 points to end at 5,193.48. WTI oil closed at $44.98, +$0.09. 10yr T Note yield rose to 1.85%. There are no economic reports due for release tomorrow.
 
 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

 

2:38 PM Stocks giving up some gains.

1:15 PM The $24B 3-yr Note auction garners a "D+" rating.

12:28 PM The 10-yr T Note yield edges higher to 1.86% from the 1.82% seen this morning.

12:10 PM Dow +100 points after a 60 point loss earlier in the session.

11:15 AM Alert To Lock!

11:06 AM The Dow turns positive.

10:59 AM MBS slowly fading lower. Be mindful if prices slip lower still, the selling could gain momentum. Bonds have not closed beneath the 200-day Moving Average for 2 consecutive days in a year.

10:47 AM The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon slips below support at the 200-day Moving Average.

 

10:35 AM Stocks paring some losses.

10:03 AM The September Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed 5.49 million job openings, just above the 5.443 million in August.

9:53 AM The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P edge lower.

9:36 AM Stocks open modestly lower. Dow -35 points.

8:57 AM CoreLogic reports there were 36K completed foreclosures nationally in September, down from 39K in September 2015.

8:39 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (non-voter 2016) says inflation continues to be a bit soft but growth is pretty decent; not a crime if Fed overshoots on inflation.

8:34 AM The New York Fed will provide some support this morning buying up to $2.25B in Fannie/Freddie 30-yr 3.0% and 3.5% coupons beginning at 9:00 a.m. and ending at 9:45 a.m. ET.

8:22 AM There are no economic reports due for release today.

8:22 AM The Treasury will sell $24B 3-yr Notes, results at 1:00 p.m. ET.

8:20 AM U.S. dollar index flat at 97.80.

8:20 AM WTI oil near unchanged at $44.73/barrel.

8:19 AM Treasury prices flat ... 10-yr yield 1.82%, unchanged.

8:13 AM MBS open near unchanged, S&P futures flat to slightly lower.

8:09 AM The markets brace for the presidential election results with exit polls beginning after 5:00 p.m. ET tonight.

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.

 

 

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