Non Farm Payrolls

November 4th, 2016

 

 

Commentary: With the Jobs report and the Fed meeting behind us, Mortgage Bonds have closed above both layers of support called the 200 day moving average and the price of $103.  Next up the election on November 8th. Prediction: we will not be bored no matter what happens. Our only suggestion is get out and vote.

MARKET WRAP:Not much action today in the Mortgage Bond markets after the push-pull data from the October Jobs Report. U.S. employers added 161K jobs last month, below the 175K expected, while August and September were revised higher by a total of 44K. The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon rose by 9bp to end at 103.09. Stocks ended lower due in part to uncertainty surrounding Tuesday's election. The Dow lost 42.32 points to 17,888.35, the S&P fell by 3.47 points to 2,085.19, while the Nasdaq was down 12.04 pints to end at 5,046.37. The S&P fell for nine straight sessions, the longest such streak in more than 35 years. WTI oil closed at $44.07/barrel, -$0.59. The 10-yr T Note yield ended at 1.77%. Next week's economic data features just Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment with the election being the X-Factor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non Farm Payrolls 

 

Date & Time

Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

11/4/16 8:30 AM

Non-Farm Payrolls

Oct

175k

161k

156K

HIGH

 

Average Work Wk

Oct

34.4

34.4

34.4

HIGH

 

Unemployment Rt

Oct

4.90%

4.9%

5.00%

HIGH

 

Hourly Earnings

Oct

0.30%

0.4%

0.20%

HIGH

 

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

 

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news.

For reviews on the Job's Report click on the following link:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-october-jobs-report-was-perfect-for-hillary-clinton-125314060.html

 

3:52 PM After this week's packed economic calendar and the Fed meeting, next week's economic calendar features just Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment. The markets will zero in on Tuesday's presidential election.

3:09 PM The S&P 500 trades near unchanged as traders and investors gear up for Tuesday's presidential election.

1:47 PM MBS trade in an extremely tight range today, following the same pattern this week.

1:06 PM At midday, MBS near unchanged, Stocks modestly higher. WTI oil $44/barrel, -$0.66. 10-yr yield 1.77%.

11:29 AM After the jobs report, Fed Fund Futures now show an 80% chance of a hike next month, up from 76% before the release, which could be due in part to the uptick in wage growth.

11:27 AM The Dow, S&P and the Nasdaq edge into positive territory.

10:48 AM The Atlanta Fed's GDP model forecast for Q4 U.S. GDP growth is 3.1%, up from 2.3% on November 1.

10:24 AM The S&P 500 hovers just above unchanged.

9:43 AM Stocks mixed soon after the open ... Dow and Nasdaq slightly lower, S&P flat.

9:13 AM Job growth per month in 2016 averaged 181K vs 229K in 2015.

8:47 AM Fed's Lockhart sees gradually rising rates over the next few years.

8:41 AM Fed Fund Futures show a 76% probability for a rate hike at next month's FOMC meeting.

8:40 AM S&P futures flat.

8:38 AM Not much reaction in MBS from the push-pull jobs data.

8:37 AM The Labor Force Participation Rate at 62.8% in October from 62.9% in September, still a multi-decade low.

8:36 AM U-6 number, which is the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force fell to 9.5% from 9.7%.

8:34 AM The Unemployment Rate 4.9%. Average hourly earnings 0.4% vs 0.3% expected.

8:31 AM October Non-farm Payrolls 161K vs the 175K expected. August and September revised higher by 44K.

8:17 AM U.S. dollar index 97.11, -0.08.

8:15 AM WTI oil continues to edge lower now at $44.19/barrel, -$0.47 despite OPEC saying that it would finalize an agreement to cut output later this month.

8:07 AM S&P futures little changed.

8:06 AM MBS open near unchanged ahead of the jobs data.

8:03 AM Ahead of the closely watch jobs data, the 10-yr T Note yield edges lower to 1.79% from yesterday's close of 1.81%.

8:01 AM It's Jobs Day!

8:01 AM It is expected that employers added 175K new workers in October. Average hourly earnings expected at 0.3%. Unemployment Rate 4.9%.

 

 

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