Today is ADP Wednesday next up Non Farm Payroll Friday

October 5th, 2016

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. For a full veiw of the day start at the bottom and work your way up.  All Times are Eastern Standard Time. When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) on the Chart above goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. All times are Eastern Standard.  

At the Close

MBS closed near unchanged today and off their worst levels after the ECB denied reports of tapering, but weighed down by the surge in the ISM Service Index. The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon closed at 103.59, unchanged. Stocks rose led by energy shares as oil prices gushed higher. The Dow gained 112.58 points to 18,281.03, the S&P 500 rose 9.24 points to 2,159.73, while the Nasdaq was up 26.04 points to end the bullish session at 5,315.70. WTI oil closed at $49.89/barrel, +$1.20. 10-yr T Note yield 1.71%. Tomorrow's economic data is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday is unemployment Day.  Below is the estimate and the prior month's results.

September Employment Report

                                         Estimate              Prior month

Average Work Week            34.4                     34.3

Non-Farm Payrolls               171K                    151K

Unemployment Rate             4.9%                    4.9%

Hourly Earnings                    0.2%                     0.1%

3:08 PM - MBS bounce off lows after the ECB denies tapering headlines.

2:39 PM - The European Central Bank is denying the tapering rumors.

1:23 PM - Stocks rally on higher energy, bank shares.

1:01 PM - At midday, MBS modestly lower, Stocks in rally mode.

12:38 PM - The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline is at $2.23.

12:23 PM - What is supply-side economic? An economic theory which holds that reducing tax rates, especially for businesses and wealthy individuals, stimulates savings and investment for the benefit of everyone. Also called trickle-down economics.

10:57 AM - Predictions from the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac show that home sales are going to heat up in 2017.

10:56 Chart was posted: 

3% MBS price $103.44 down 16 basis points from Tuesday’s close.   

10:35 AM - Support at the 100-day Moving Average (103.39) is currently holding for the 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon. A breach below that level will prompt an Alert To Lock.

10:06 AM - Stocks gains accelerate after the ISM Service data.

10:03 AM - MBS edge lower after the strong numbers from the ISM Service Index.

10:02 AM - The ISM Service Index surges to 57.1, well above the 52.8 expected.

9:38 AM - Stocks open higher - Dow +88 points.

8:34 AM - The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon opens just below support supplied by the 25- and 50-day Moving Averages.

8:32 AM - The MBAs refinance index +4.7%, purchase index essentially unchanged.

8:30 AM - The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, rose 2.9% in the latest week.

8:29 AM - The ISM Service Index will be released at 10:00 a.m.

8:25 AM - S&P futures higher.

8:23 AM - WTI oil $49.64/barrel, +$0.95.

8:23 AM - U.S. dollar index 96.06, -0.05.

8:22 AM - 10-yr T Note yield 1.68%.

8:20 AM - MBS open near unchanged with little impact from the lower ADP numbers.

8:16 AM - August ADP revised to 175K from 177K.

8:15 AM - ADP reports 154K private jobs created in September, below the 171K expected.

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

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