9/26/16 $104 is it time to buy or sell?

September 26th, 2016

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

End of day commentary 

MBS were able to rise again for the fourth straight session as Stocks plunged on the Deutsche Bank woes and ahead of tonight's presidential debate. Weak New Home Sales also helped to support higher Bond prices. The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon closed at 104.06, +19bp. The Dow lost 166.62 points to 18,094.83, the S&P 500 fell 18.59 points to 2,146.10, while the Nasdaq was down 48.25 points to end the day at 5,257.49. WTI oil closed at $45.93/barrel, +$1.43. 10-yr T Note yield 1.58%. Tomorrow's economic data includes Case Shiller 20-city Home Price Index and September Consumer Confidence. The Treasury will sell $34B 5-yr Note

All times are Eastern Standard. 

Indexes posted at the close.

 

3:49 PM - Stocks fall as investors brace for presidential debate.

3:09 PM - Fed's Lacker (non-voter) says case for a December rate hike is strong. Fed's Kaplan (voter) says would have been comfortable hiking rates on September; Fed should be patient though; still some labor market slack.

2:00 PM - Dow -150 points.

1:13 PM - The $26B 2-yr Note auction garners a "C-" rating.

12:45 PM - MBS hover near the session highs, Stocks underwater.

11:40 AM - Fed Chair Yellen will be on Capitol Hill in front of the House Financial Service Committee on Wednesday beginning at 10:0 a.m. ET.

11:26 AM - Five people shot dead Friday night at a state of Washington mall, nine people injured when a shooter opened fire at a Houston shopping center this morning.

10:29 AM - The S&P 500 cuts some of the earlier losses.

10:28 AM - The 10-yr T Note yield falls to 1.59% after hitting 1.75% last week.

When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) on the Chart above goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down

Chart was posted at 10:39 am.

3% MBS price $104.00 up 12 basis points from Friday’s close.  As you can see on the 1 year chart that we have not been above 104 much over the last 12 months.  Time will tell if this is a selling opportunity for Traders, or a time to lock for Borrowers. 

10:19 am - Indexes below posted

 

10:01 AM - August New Home Sales -7.6% from July to an annual rate of 609K vs 585K expected.

9:39 AM - Dow -140 points.

9:30 AM - As expected, Stocks begin the week in negative territory. Dow -80 points.

 

9:14 AM New Rates have been posted

30-Year Fixed 3.375% (3.457% APR) No Origination Fee  

For more rates and details click: http://www.johnmarbury.com/page5.html/

  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.375% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $884.19 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.457%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.

Feel free to call (205-266-5669) or email (jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com) John for a quote based on the terms of your loan.

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  All Times are Eastern Standard Time. 

9:00 AM - After the recent 3-day rally, resistance at the 25- and 50-day Moving Averages now becomes support.

 

8:53 AM - Legendary golfer Arnold Palmer passes away at 87.

8:35 AM - The New York Fed will purchase up to $2.55B in Fannie/Freddie 30-yr 3 and 3.5s beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET.

8:32 AM - August New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

8:30 AM - The Treasury will sell a total of $88B in securities this week beginning with today's $26B 2-yr Notes. Tuesday $34B 5-year Notes, Wednesday $28B 7s.

8:19 AM - Also adding to uncertainty in the equity markets is tonight's first debate of the 2016 presidential election.

8:17 AM - WTI oil +$0.63 to $45.12/barrel.

8:16 AM - The weakness in foreign equities is pushing S&P futures lower as investors eye a big oil meeting this week in Algiers aimed at potentially limiting output.

8:08 AM - MBS open flat to higher as European equities are having their worst session in two months.

 

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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