9/19/16 12% Chance of a Fed Hike

September 19th, 2016

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir.com

End of the Day

3% Fannie Mae  30-yr coupon $103.31 downt 16 basis point at the close 

MBS drifted lower in today's session but remained above support at the 100--day Moving Average. Market participants are probably not adding to positions ahead of Wednesday's headlines from the Bank of Japan and the Fed's policy decisions.. Stocks ended near unchanged in seesaw trading as banks gained and Apple shares weighed. The major indices ended near unchanged ... Dow 18,120.17, the S&P 2,139.12 and the Nasdaq 5,235.02, -9.54 points. WTI oil ended at $43.30/barrel, +$0.27. The 10-yr T Note yield 1.70%. August Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released tomorrow morning. The two-day Fed meeting kicks off tomorrow, but there will be no headlines until Wednesday at 2:00 pm.m ET when the monetary policy statement is released.

Chart was posted after the close 11:19 am.

When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) on the Chart above goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. All times are Eastern Standard. 

3% Fannie Mae 30 year MBS price $103.47  no change from Friday’s close. 

Commentary: We are still trading in between the 25 day and 100 day moving averages.  The FOMC is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.  They will release a statement Wednesday at 2PM. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will have a press conference at 2:30 pm.

Experts say there is a 12% chance that the Fed is going to raise rates.  The market has the potential of some volatile moves after the announcement.  Volatile can be good or bad for rates depending on on the direction.

DEFINITION of 'Federal Open Market Committee Meeting - FOMC Meeting'

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that occurs eight times a year. In the FOMC meeting, the FOMC, consisting of 12 members, determines near-term monetary policy. The changes that are decided on, are announced immediately after the FOMC Meeting.

Read more: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting - FOMC Meeting Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomcmeeting.asp#ixzz4KiRyGOmi
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9:38 AM New Rates have been posted

30-Year Fixed 3.500% (3.583% APR) No Origination Fee  

15-Year Fixed 2.750%   (2.892% APR) No Origination Fee

7-1 ARM 30 year 3.000% (3.341% APR) No Origination Fee

Feel free to call (205-266-5669) or email (jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com) John for a quote based on the terms of you loan.

For more rates and details click: http://www.johnmarbury.com/page5.html/

  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.500% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $898.09 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.457%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  •  15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 2.750% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1357.24 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 2.892%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 7-1 30 year ARM for $200,000 with an Initial Interest Rate of 3.000% (3.334% APR) your monthly payments for years 1 – 7 would be $870.41 and for years 8 -30 monthly payments would be $886.87 (based on the current Index  of  1.210% Plus Margin of 2.25% to $417,000 and 2.5% to $900,000).  Monthly payments do not include taxes and insurance and the actual payment obligation will be greater.  Your variable interest rate is subject to a floor of your Initial Interest Rate.  Your variable interest rate can increase or decrease after the seventh year by 2 percentage points annually and can increase 4 percentage points over your Initial Interest Rate over the term of your loan.  The index for this loan program is the average of the interbank Offered Rates for One Year Denominated Deposits in the London Market (LIBOR)

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  All Times are Eastern Standard Time. 

4:04 PM - After seesaw trading, the S&P 500 closes near unchanged.

3:36 PM - The Dow, S&P and the Nadaq flip-flop from positive to negative, back to positive but now near unchanged.

3:14 PM - MBS at session lows.

2:42 PM - The S&P pushes back into positive territory.

2:34 PM - WTI oil closes at $43.40/barrel, +$0.37.

1:32 PM - Stocks give up gains and slip into negative territory.

12:51 PM - At midday, Stocks positive, but off their highs. MBS near unchanged in rangebound trading. WTI oil +$0.46 at $43.51/barrel. 10-yr T Note yield 1.68%.

11:25 AM - Stocks holding gains, MBS flat to slightly lower.

11:22 AM - A suspect, Ahmad Khan Rahami, has been taken into custody for the bombings in New Jersey and New York.

10:01 AM - The NAHB Housing Market Index rises 6 points to 65, above the 60 expected.

9:56 AM - Dow +111 points.

9:34 AM - The NY Fed will be purchasing up to $2.55B in Fannie/Freddie 30-yr 3s and 3.5s beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET.

9:30 AM - As expected, Stocks open higher.

8:15 AM - The September NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

U.S. dollar index 95.89, -0.21.

10-yr T Note yield 1.69%.

WTI oil $43.60/barrel, +$0.57.

Fed Fund Futures show a 12% chance of a hike to the Fed Funds Rate on Wednesday. The two-day Fed meeting kicks off on Tuesday and will end at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday with the release of the monetary policy statement and will be be followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Yellen at 2:30.

Mortgage Bonds look to open flat to slightly higher while Stock futures rise on dim Fed rate hike prospects.

7:53 AM - This past weekend saw a bomb explode in New York City's Chelsea District, wounding 29 people, and a pipe bomb went off along the route of a New Jersey charity run without hurting anyone. On Saturday, a man armed with a knife wounded nine people at a Minnesota shopping mall. On Sunday night, five potential bombs were discovered near a Elizabeth, New Jersey train station and turned over to authorities.

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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