9/15/16

September 15th, 2016

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) on the Chart above goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Chart was posted after the close. All times are Eastern Standard. MBS showed resilience and closed near unchanged, despite the big rally in Stocks. Not much movement in MBS for most of the session after this morning's sea-saw action. The somewhat push-pull economic data, with a bias to weaker-than-expected, had little impact on MBS. The Fannie Mae 3% coupon closed at 103.47, +6bp. However, the weak Retail Sales data eased the chances for a rate hike next week, which sparked a big rally in Stocks. The Dow gained 177.71 points to 18,212.48, the S&P 500 was up 21.49 points to 2,147.26, while the tech heavy Nasdaq rose 75.91 points to 5,249.68. Shares of Apple (AAPL, $115.57, +$3.80) had a hand in pushing Stock prices higher. WTI oil closed at $43.91/barrel, +$0.33. The 10-yr T Note yield 1.69%. Tomorrow's economic data includes August CPI and September Consumer Sentiment.

9:24 AM New Rates have been posted

30-Year Fixed 3.500% (3.583% APR) No Origination Fee  

15-Year Fixed 2.750%   (2.892% APR) No Origination Fee

7-1 ARM 30 year 3.000% (3.341% APR) No Origination Fee

Feel free to call (205-266-5669) or email (jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com) John for a quote based on the terms of you loan.

For more rates and details click: http://www.johnmarbury.com/page5.html/

  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.500% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $898.09 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.457%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  •  15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 2.750% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1357.24 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 2.892%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 7-1 30 year ARM for $200,000 with an Initial Interest Rate of 3.000% (3.334% APR) your monthly payments for years 1 – 7 would be $870.41 and for years 8 -30 monthly payments would be $886.87 (based on the current Index  of  1.210% Plus Margin of 2.25% to $417,000 and 2.5% to $900,000).  Monthly payments do not include taxes and insurance and the actual payment obligation will be greater.  Your variable interest rate is subject to a floor of your Initial Interest Rate.  Your variable interest rate can increase or decrease after the seventh year by 2 percentage points annually and can increase 4 percentage points over your Initial Interest Rate over the term of your loan.  The index for this loan program is the average of the interbank Offered Rates for One Year Denominated Deposits in the London Market (LIBOR)

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  All Times are Eastern Standard Time. 

2:27 PM - The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon flirts with resistance at 103.44.

2:20 PM - Dow +207 points.

2:02 PM - Home flipping rises to a six-year high in Q2 2016.

12:54 PM - Political dysfunction has become the biggest economic stumbling block for the U.S., according to a Harvard study, reports the Wall Street Journal.

12:51 PM - At midday, MBS near unchanged. S&P higher as the chance of a rate hike next week fades away.

11:45 AM - Dow +142 points on the notion that a Fed rate hike will not take place next week at the FOMC meeting.

10:24 AM - Dow +60 points led by surging shares of Apple (AAPL, $115.00, +$3.20).

10:20 AM - Freddie Mac reports that the 30-yr fixed conventional rate ($417K or less) rose to 3.50% this week with 0.5 in points and fees, up from 3.44% last week.

9:54 AM - Stocks turn positive.

 9:31 AM - The S&P trades near unchanged at the open of trading on Wall Street.

9:29 AM - Renters are losing confidence in housing as less say it’s a good time to buy a home, according to the National Association of Realtors Housing Opportunities and Market Experience survey.

8:54 AM - MBS pare gains and fall to unchanged levels.

8:49 AM - The New York Fed will be purchasing up to $2.55B in Fannie/Freddie 30-yr 3s and 3.5s later this morning beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET.

8:47 AM - Bond prices now losing a bit of steam after the 8:30 economic data.

8:40 AM - The wave of push-pull economic data leaves MBS near pre-data levels.

8:37 AM - Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 260K vs 263K expected.

Empire Manufacturing -2.0 vs 0.0 expected. Philly Fed 12.8 vs 0.0 expected.

August PPI 0.0% vs 0.1%.

Core PPI 0.1%, inline.

Retail Sales x-autos -0.1% vs vs -0.3% expected.

August Retail Sales -0.3% vs -0.1% expected.

8:25 AM - WTI oil $43.94, +$0.36.

U.S. dollar index 95.28, -0.04.

10-yr T Note yield 1.67%.

S&P futures higher ahead of the economic data.

Mortgage Bonds open near unchanged ahead of a plethora of economic data which includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, PPI, Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing and the Philly Fed all at 8:30.

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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