8/23/16 Big Surge in New Home Sales

August 23rd, 2016

What Is Going On With Interest Rates? #wigowir

When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) on the Chart above goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Chart was posted at: 11:39 am. All times are Eastern Standard.

Commentary

Closing Comments: With the sideways pattern still intact and as the Bond trades near resistance. MARKET WRAP: Not a lot of action in the MBS market today as prices traded near unchanged ahead of Fed Chair Yellens speech on Friday at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. July New Home Sales surged 12.4% from June, but MBS shrugged off the better-than-expected data. The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon closed at 103.75, +9bp. Stocks saw lackluster trading. The Dow gained 17.86 points to 18,547.30, the S&P was up 4.26 points to 2,186.90, while the tech heavy Nasdaq gained 15.47 points to end the session at 5,260.07. WTI oil closed at $48.10/barrel +$0.69. July Existing Home Sales will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET tomorrow morning.

3:12 PM - MBS hug the flatline, Stocks modestly higher.

1:41 PM - Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-FOMC voter) said a rate hike is warranted if the current jobs trend continues.

1:12 PM - The $26B 2-yr Note auction garners a "B" rating and is part of a total of $88B being offered this week.

1:01 PM - At midday, Stocks off highs clinging to modest gains. MBS near unchanged. WTI oil $48.10, +$0.69.

12:48 PM - The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon hovers near resistance at the 25-day Moving Average (103.67).

12:46 PM - The Bond markets await the results of the 1:00 p.m. ET release of the $26B 2-yr Note auction.

12:38 PM - Consumers are expected to spend an average of $674 per household this back-to-school season, up nearly 7% from last year according to the National Retail Federation

11:35 am the 3% MBS is up 3 ticks from Monday’s close at 103.69 above the 50 day moving average (Black line) of $103.58, and the 25 day moving average (Green Line) of $103.67. If we can stay above these averages, we could see an improvement in rates. The Rate below are unchanged from yesterday.

For more information call (205-266-5669) or email (jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com) John.

11:09 AM ET New Rates have been posted

30-Year Fixed 3.375% (3.457% APR) No Origination Fee

15-Year Fixed 2.750% (2.892% APR) No Origination Fee

7-1 ARM 30 year 3.000% (3.341% APR) No Origination Fee

For more rates and details click: http://www.johnmarbury.com/page5.html/

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.375% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $884.19 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.457%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.

15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 2.750% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1357.24 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 2.892%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
7-1 30 year ARM for $200,000 with an Initial Interest Rate of 3.000% (3.334% APR) your monthly payments for years 1 – 7 would be $870.41 and for years 8 -30 monthly payments would be $886.87 (based on the current Index of 1.210% Plus Margin of 2.25% to $417,000 and 2.5% to $900,000). Monthly payments do not include taxes and insurance and the actual payment obligation will be greater. Your variable interest rate is subject to a floor of your Initial Interest Rate. Your variable interest rate can increase or decrease after the seventh year by 2 percentage points annually and can increase 4 percentage points over your Initial Interest Rate over the term of your loan. The index for this loan program is the average of the interbank Offered Rates for One Year Denominated Deposits in the London Market (LIBOR)

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.

11:25 AM - Oil prices reverse and gush higher on speculation of Iran supporting OPEC freeze action. WTI $48/barrel from this morning's low of $46.59.

10:40 AM - The big surge in New Home Sales was somewhat offset by a big decline in the Richmond Manufacturing Index as it fell to an annual rate of -11 in July, from the +10 in June and below the +6 expected.

10:02 AM - July New Home Sales surge 12.4% from June to an annual rate of 654K, well above the 580K expected. June revised lower to 582K from 592K.

9:40 AM - 10-yr T Note yield now at 1.53%.

9:40 AM - Toll Brothers revenues +25%, orders +18% ... shares higher in early trading.

9:36 AM - As expected, Stocks open higher - Dow +90 points.

8:45 AM - U.S. dollar index 94.32, -0.17.

8:20 AM- July New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

At 1:00 p.m. ET, the results from today's $26B 2-year Note auction will be released.

WTI oil $47/barrel, -$0.41.

10-yr T Note yield 1.55% from yesterday's close of 1.53%.

MBS open near unchanged after positive Eurozone economic data.

Investors await Ms. Yellen's speech on Friday for clues on the health of the global economy and Yellen's stand on raising interest rates.

S&P futures rising as it shrugs off lower oil prices and turns its focus to Fed Chair Yellen's speech at this week's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.