8/18/16 No direction from the Fed

August 18th, 2016

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir

When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) on the Chart above goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Chart was posted at: 10:35 am et

Commentary

10:35 am et Mortgage Rates are pretty flat this morning.  Currently we are still dancing with the 25 day moving average (Green line on the chart).  We closed on the 3% MBS at $103.69.  Currently we are down 3 basis points at $103.66.  The 25 day moving average is $103.67 today.  The Fed has not given any clear sign as to when the next hike will occur.  

For more information call (205-266-5669) or email (jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com) John.

Thanks!

10:18 AM ET New Rates have been posted

30-Year Fixed 3.375% (3.457% APR) No Origination Fee  

15-Year Fixed 2.750%   (2.892% APR) No Origination Fee

7-1 ARM 30 year 3.000% (3.341% APR) No Origination Fee

For more rates and details click: http://www.johnmarbury.com/page5.html/

  • 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.375% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $884.19 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.457%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  •  15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 2.750% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1357.24 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 2.892%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • 7-1 30 year ARM for $200,000 with an Initial Interest Rate of 3.000% (3.334% APR) your monthly payments for years 1 – 7 would be $870.41 and for years 8 -30 monthly payments would be $886.87 (based on the current Index  of  1.210% Plus Margin of 2.25% to $417,000 and 2.5% to $900,000).  Monthly payments do not include taxes and insurance and the actual payment obligation will be greater.  Your variable interest rate is subject to a floor of your Initial Interest Rate.  Your variable interest rate can increase or decrease after the seventh year by 2 percentage points annually and can increase 4 percentage points over your Initial Interest Rate over the term of your loan.  The index for this loan program is the average of the interbank Offered Rates for One Year Denominated Deposits in the London Market (LIBOR)

Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  All Times are Eastern Standard Time.

10:16 AM - Former Fed member Mishkin says the current economic and low inflation environment doesn't constitute a rate hike anytime soon.

10:06 AM - New York Fed's Dudley highlights an improving job market in his prepared remarks this morning to a press conference. Sees middle-wage gains improving.

9:54 AM - The New York Fed buys $2.02B in Fannie/Freddie 30-yr 3s and 3.5s this morning.

9:42 AM - The U.S. dollar index continues to push lower down by 0.25 to 94.43 signaling a rate hike may is unlikely next month.

9:33 AM - Stocks open slightly higher.

WTI oil rises to $47.47/barrel, +$0.67 after hitting $39 on August 3.

9:24 AM - The negative equity rate is 12% of all mortgaged homeowners, down from 14% a year ago and down 30% at the height of the housing crisis. The 12% is still above normal levels.

Zillow reports that 5.9 million still owe more on mortgages than their homes are worth.

 8:37 AM - Within the Philly Fed it showed that the employment component weakened considerably falling 18 points to -20.0, which is the largest negative reading for the current year.

The August Philly Fed rises 5 points from August to 2.0 vs the 0.5 expected.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims -4K to 262K, just below the 265K expected.

8:26 AM - Fed speak today - New York Fed President Dudley (voter) will be speaking at 10:00 a.m. ET and comes after him saying on Tuesday that a rate hike could come next month.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed will be released at 8:30.

10-yr T Note yield 1.54% from yesterday's close of 1.56%.

MBS open near unchanged as the Fed minutes show members divided over future rate movements.

 

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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