6/03/16

June 3rd, 2016

Fri, Jun 03 5:00 PM End of the day

Be careful what you wish for. Lower rates accompany pain. And pain we received by way of the miserable Jobs Report. MBS priced soared today and the long Green Candle is very bullish. Combine that trading action with the underlying uncertainty of more economic weakness and falling global yields and Mortgage Bonds may be able to build enough energy to bust above The Wall of resistance at the $103+ area. For now consider floating, albeit very carefully as prices have backed away from this resistance consistently over the past 2 years.

Mortgage Bonds busted through resistance levels following a May Jobs Report that showed hiring has been on a downward spiral since February. Only 38,000 jobs were added in May, the lowest in nearly six years and well below the 155,000 expected. The 3% Fannie Mae 30-yr coupon gained 38 bp to end at 102.88. Stocks fell with the S&P closing at 2099.13, down 6.13 points, the Dow at 17807.06, down 31.50 points, and the Nasdaq down 28.84 points to close at 4,942.51. WTI oil dropped to $48.80/barrel.
 

Fri, Jun 03 9:35 AM - Stocks open lower - Dow down 83 points.

Fri, Jun 03 9:22 AM - S&P futures pointing to a down open.
Fri, Jun 03 9:00 AM - Fed Fund Futures now show just a 6% chance of a Fed Fund Rate hike in June, 42% in July and 52% in September.
Fri, Jun 03 8:49 AM - April revised lower to 123K vs the 160K originally reported.
Fri, Jun 03 8:35 AM - The 38K jobs created in may was the lowest since September 2010.
Fri, Jun 03 8:31 AM -  The Unemployment Rate falls to 4.7%.
Fri, Jun 03 8:30 AM -May Non Payrolls increase by just 38K, well below the 155K expected.
Fri, Jun 03 8:23 AM - Tick,tick, tick ... May Jobs Report data at 8:30.
Fri, Jun 03 8:08 AM - Mortgage Bonds open near unchanged.
Fri, Jun 03 8:02 AM - Today's jobs data will be key in the Fed's decision on a hike in the short-term Fed Funds Rate.
Fri, Jun 03 8:01 AM - The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick lower to 4.9% from 5%.
Fri, Jun 03 7:59 AM - That can all change at 8:30 when the jobs numbers are released.
Fri, Jun 03 7:58 AM -  WTI oil $48.97/barrel, -$0.20.
Fri, Jun 03 7:58 AM - U.S. dollar index 95.58, near unchanged.
Fri, Jun 03 7:57 AM - Mortgage Bonds look to open flat to slightly higher.
Fri, Jun 03 7:57 AM - 10-yr T Note yield 1.79%.
Fri, Jun 03 7:56 AM - Ahead of the report, S&P futures slightly higher.
Fri, Jun 03 7:53 AM - It's Jobs Day! The May Jobs Report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET where it is expected that employers added 155K new workers.

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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