Low Rates the New Norm?

Low Rates the New Norm?

What Is Going On With Interest Rates?  #wigowir


Below is the news when it happened and the market’s reaction.  For a full view of the day start at the bottom and work your way up. If want to know what just happened start at the top. All Times are Eastern Standard Time.  When the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) goes down rates go up, and when the price goes up rates come down. Remember in the bond market Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad news

End of the day
MBS edged lower in today's session after strong manufacturing data was released. There were no economic reports released today. The benchmark 3% 30-yr Fannie Mae coupon has traded in a narrow range for the past five session falling 9bp today to end at 103.28. Stocks ended higher on strong earnings and M&A deals. The Dow gained 77.32 points to 18,223.03, the S&P rose 10.17 points to 2,151.33, while the Nasdaq was up 52.42 points to end the day at 5,309.82. WTI oil closed at $50.22/barrel, -$0.33. 10-yr yield 1.76%. Tomorrow's data includes the Case-Shiller 20-city Index and Consumer Confidence.

3:25 PM MBS continue to be stuck in a tight range with little movement today as they trade flat to slightly lower. Stocks holding gains.

1:30 PM Fed's Evans says inflation is too low - sees less headroom to raise rates.

1:22 PM Bond prices weighed down as the Markit PMI Manufacturing gauge hits a one-year high.

1:19 PM Just past midday, MBS flat to slightly lower. Stocks higher though off best levels. 10-yr yield 1.76%.

12:32 PM Real estate expert Ivy Zelman says housing market looks very good overall.

10:54 AM MBS at session lows.


10:50 Fed's Bullard: Low rates will likely be the norm for the next two to three years:

10:11 AM Stocks giving up some gains. The Dow was up 120 points, now up 80.


10:06 AM The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI shows U.S. manufacturers record strongest upturn in business conditions for 12 months in October.

9:51 AM MBS give up their meager gains.

9:32 AM Stocks open higher on merger activity, earnings.

9:10 AM The Fed's Bullard says low rates will likely be the norm for the next two or three years.

9:06 AM The Treasury will sell $26B 2-yr Notes on Tuesday, $34B 5's on Wednesday and $28B 7's on Thursday.

8:34 AM As we reported late Friday, the Justice Department is expected to sue ratings agency Moody's over rosy ratings on Mortgage Backed Securities that were issued prior to the financial crisis that later went sour.

8:21 AM TD Ameritrade said it would buy privately held Scottrade Financial in a deal valued at $4 billion.

8:18 AM There are no economic reports due for release today. The rest of the week features data on housing, Durable Orders, Q3 first look on GDP, Consumer Sentiment and the Employment Cost Index.

8:17 AM  A host of Fed members will be speaking during today's trading session.

8:15 AM WTI oil $50.15/barrel, -0.70.

10-yr T Note yield 1.73%.

U.S. dollar index 98.61, -0.06.

MBS open near unchanged.

A flurry of deal activity lifts S&P futures. In particular, AT&T agrees to purchase Time Warner for $85 billion.


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