It's Job's Week 5/29-6/02/23

Friday June 2nd, 2023

Market Wrap Mortgage Bonds ended the day lower by 34 basis points (Price Down Yield Up) to a price of 99.83. The 10 year was up 10 bp in yield at a yield of 3.70%.

12:31 PM : At mid-day stocks are higher. The Dow is +618.74 at 33,680.31 and the S&P 500 is +57.11 at 4,278.13. Mortgage Bonds are -44bp at 99.73.

10:16 AM ET Mortgage Bonds are down 25 bp to 99.92 (Price Down Yield Up) The 10 year is up 6 pb to 3.666%

9:30 AM ET: Stocks have started the day higher. The Dow is +218.83 at 33,280.40 and the S&P

8:38 AM ET: The BLS Jobs report showed that there was an increase of 339,000 jobs in the month of May, which was well above expectations of 190,000. Employment gains in March and April were revised higher by a combined 93,000. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7%, which was higher than the 3.5% estimate . Average weekly earnings are unchanged for the month and up 3.4% year over year.

 

Thursday June 1st, 2023

 

Now all eyes are on tomorrow's important Job's Report. For more information click on the following hyperlink: Jobs Report Blog

 8:53 AM ET : The Challenger Job-Cut Report, which counts corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state departments of labor, showed that there were 80,089 layoffs in May, which was higher than April's report of 66,995.

 

8:51 AM ET Mortgage Bond prices are up 8 BP to a price of 99.94 and the 10 year is down 2 bp to 3.616%

8:44 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, was reported at 232,000 claims for last week. This represents an increase of 2,000 from the previous revised report of 230,000 claims, and was below expectations of 235,000. Continuing Claims increased by 6,000 to 1.795 Million claims, which was just below the 1.8 Million estimate.

 

7:15 AM ET ADP:Private employers added 278,000 jobs in May

Job growth is strong while pay growth continues to slow. But gains in private employment were fragmented last month, with leisure and hospitality, natural resources, and construction taking the lead. Manufacturing and finance lost jobs.

This is the second month we've seen a full percentage point decline in pay growth for job changers. Pay growth is slowing substantially, and wage-driven inflation may be less of a concern for the economy despite robust hiring. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP

Wednesday May 31st 2023

Market Wrap Mortgage Bonds ended the day at 99.859 up 35 BP from yesterday's close (Price Up Yield Down). 10year closed at 3.633%

Jolts Report for April rose from 9.745,000 to 10,103,000 from the expected 9,375,000. Job openings picked up in construction. Leisure/hospitaity continued to shrink.

 

8:29 ET Mortgage Bonds up 25 bp to 99.75 (Price Up Yield Down) 10 year treasury down 2 bp to a yield of 3.6580%. Starting the day right. Maybe this is the beginning of a trend lower.

Tuesday May 30th 2023

Market Wrap Mortgage Bonds ended the day up 44 bp to a price of 99.50 (Price Up Yield Down). The 10 year closed at 3.6940% slightly lower than at 1:26 pm. Tomorrow the Jolts (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) Report comes out. This a monthly indicator that tells us, how many workers have been hired, how many quit their job, how many were laid off, and how many experienced other separations (Which includes worker deaths).

 

1:26 PM ET Mortgage Bonds are having a nice today with the proposed debt ceiling agreement. Mortgage Bond Price is up 41 bps to a price of 99.47 (Price Up Yield Down). The 10 year Treasury is down 7 bp to a yield of 3.7040%.

Job's Week includes many important Monthly Job's Report Jolts comes out on Wednesday, ADP Report comes out on Thursday and the big Job's report comes out on Friday along with the weekly Jobless claims

Historical information

The 10 year treasury is a good way to track mortgage rates.  Recent high for the 10 year was 4.335% on 10/21/22. This yield hit a low of 0.55% on 8/07/2020.  Thursday 4/06/23 the 10 year hit a recent low of 3.266%.  Recent Friday closings 4/07/23 3.413% 4/14/23 3.515% 4/21/23 3.572%  4/28/23 3.428% 5/05/23 3.435% 5/12/23 3.463% 5/19/23 3.699%  5/26/23 3.810%

 

For more information contact the John Marbury Group! john@colonybank.com

John Marbury - 205-266-5669 john.marbury@colonybank.com  NMLS# 740833

Donna Johnson 205-948-7933 donna.johnson@colonybank.com NMLS# 740828

For updates, mortgage calculators and online application go to: https://www.johnmarbury.com/

 

NMLS# 408573

Last in Review

Uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling caused volatility in the markets, while inflation was hotter than expected in April. Tight supply continues to be a key factor impacting home sales. Here are the headlines:

-Better Progress to Come on Inflation

-“Sizeable Increase” Needed in Housing Inventory

-New Home Sales Hit 13-Month High

-Unemployment Claims Reflect Challenges for Job Searchers

-First Quarter GDP Revised Higher but Still Disappointing

Better Progress to Come on Inflation

The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed that headline inflation increased 0.4% in April, while the year-over-year reading ticked higher from 4.2% to 4.4%. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.4% with the year-over-year change up from 4.6% to 4.7%. All these readings were hotter than expected, as energy prices and used cars pressured inflation higher.

What’s the bottom line? Inflation is the arch enemy of fixed investments like Mortgage Bonds because it erodes the buying power of a Bond's fixed rate of return. If inflation is rising, investors demand a rate of return to combat the faster pace of erosion due to inflation, causing interest rates to rise like we saw throughout much of last year.

While inflation moved in the wrong direction in April, the coming months will likely see nice progress made toward lowering inflation. This is because inflation is calculated on a rolling 12-month basis, so the total of the past 12 monthly inflation readings gives us the year-over-year rate of inflation. Headline inflation last year was 0.6% in May and 1% in June, so if we continued to see 0.4% readings over the next two reports, year-over-year inflation would drop from 4.4% to 3.6%.

“Sizeable Increase” Needed in Housing Inventory

Pending Home Sales remained at the same level from March to April, which was a bit below estimates looking for a 1% gain. While the West, Midwest and South all saw increases, there was a big decrease in the Northeast which pulled the index down overall. Sales were also 20.3% below the amount recorded in April of last year, though this was an improvement from the annual difference of -23% reported for March.

Pending Home Sales are a crucial measure for taking the pulse of the housing market. The data is considered a forward-looking indicator of home sales because it measures signed contracts on existing homes, which represent around 90% of the market.

What’s the bottom line? Tight supply of existing homes remains the key hindrance to signed contracts this spring. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS�, explained, “Not all buying interests are being completed due to limited inventory. Affordability challenges certainly remain and continue to hold back contract signings, but a sizeable increase in housing inventory will be critical to get more Americans moving."

New Home Sales Hit 13-Month High

New Home Sales, which measure signed contracts on new homes, rose 4.1% from March to April to a 683,000-unit annualized pace. Sales are at their best level in thirteen months, and they were also 11.8% higher than in April of last year. 

The median sales price fell from $455,800 in March to $420,800 in April. Note that this figure is not the same as appreciation but represents the mid-price and can be skewed by the mix of sales among lower-priced and higher-priced homes. Recent appreciation reports from Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and the Federal Housing Finance Agency have shown that home prices are rising again.

What’s the bottom line? The rise in signed contracts for new homes correlates with the low level of existing homes that are listed for sale. This has helped boost confidence among homebuilders, which is a positive sign as more new homes are needed to meet the overall demand among buyers. While there were 433,000 new homes for sale at the end of April, only 70,000 were completed, with the rest either not started or under construction.

This disparity between the high demand for homes and tight supply of both existing and new homes will continue to be supportive of home prices, providing opportunities for buyers who are ready to start taking advantage of appreciation gains. 

Unemployment Claims Reflect Challenges for Job Searchers

Initial Jobless Claims rose by 4,000 in the latest week, as 229,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. However, there was a negative revision to the previous week’s data subtracting 17,000 claims, so the net number over the past two weeks is lower. While this sounds like positive news on the surface, part of the decline stems from fraud that was discovered in both Massachusetts and Kentucky, which had spiked the number of filings. 

Continuing Jobless Claims declined by 5,000 in the latest week though they remain elevated at 1.794 million, which is well above the low of 1.289 million seen last September. This upward trend shows the difficulties many people are having as they search for new employment.

First Quarter GDP Revised Higher but Still Disappointing

The second reading of first quarter 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed that the U.S. economy grew by 1.3%. While this was an improvement from the initial estimate of 1.1%, it is still significantly lower than the 2.6% growth reported in the fourth quarter of last year. Note that this data is subject to further revision when the final report is released on June 29. However, given that GDP functions as a scorecard for the country’s economic health, the disappointing reading is a further sign that the economy slowed faster than expected in the first three months of this year. 

Family Hack of the Week

Friday, June 2 is National Rocky Road Day. Celebrate this iconic ice cream flavor with this homemade recipe courtesy of Yahoo – no ice cream maker required!

Place a 9x5x3-inch metal loaf pan in the freezer. In a large bowl, mix together one 14-ounce can sweetened condensed milk and 1/2 cup unsweetened cocoa. Set aside.

In a separate large bowl, beat 2 cups heavy whipping cream until stiff peaks form. Using a rubber spatula, fold in 1 cup of the whipped cream to the cocoa mixture until well combined. Fold the cocoa mixture into the remaining whipped cream until well blended.

Fold in 1 cup mini marshmallows, 1 cup toasted almond pieces and 1/2 cup mini semi-sweet chocolate chips. Transfer ice cream to the chilled loaf pan. Cover and freeze for 6 hours.

What to Look for This Week

We’ll see an update on home price appreciation when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index are reported on Tuesday.

Labor reports will also make headlines, starting with an update on May’s private payrolls when ADP’s Employment Report is released on Wednesday. The latest Jobless Claims data will be reported on Thursday while Friday brings the Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report for May, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

Technical Picture

 

 

Mortgage Bonds temporarily broke beneath support at 99.38 on Friday but recovered most of their losses before the Bond market closed early in advance of the Memorial Day holiday. The 10-year ended last week trading at around 3.80% after breaking above resistance at 3.786% on Thursday.