Jobs Report Comes out the first Friday of every month at 8:30 AM ET

Jobs Report Comes out the first Friday of every month at 8:30 AM ET (This has the potential to create the most volatile day of the month. Volatility can be good for rates or bad)

  What is the  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  Jobs Report? Investopedia's BLS Jobs Report

1. The monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the U.S. unemployment rate and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, as well as average earnings and hours worked.

2. The report consists of two main components: the household survey, which is used to estimate the unemployment rate, and the establishment survey providing data on payrolls, hours worked, and earnings.

3. Released on the first Friday of every month for the prior month, the jobs report gives investors one of the earliest and most comprehensive views into the recent state of the U.S. economy.

4. Earnings data is used to assess labor cost pressures, while hours worked can be a leading indicator of labor demand. Socioeconomic subcategories in the household survey show which groups are suffering the most and least from unemployment.

5. The Jobs Report can create the most volatile day of the month for rates to go higher or lower.

 

Friday

8:37 AM : The BLS Jobs report showed that there was an increase of 187,000 jobs in the month of August, which was above expectations of 170,000. Employment gains in June and July were revised lower by a combined 110,000. The unemployment rate rose 0.3% to 3.8%, which was above expectations of 3.5%. Average weekly earnings are up 0.5% for the month and up 4% year over year.

For more info click: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

8:52 AM: Mortgage Bonds are up 25 basis points to 98.98 and the 10 year treasury is 4.0927% flat from yesterday's close.

 

Tuesday 8/28/23

The Market is expecting that 170,000 new jobs were created in August 17,000 less than July, and the unemployment rate will remain at 3.5%.

Friday 8/04/2023

Jobs Report Yahoo Article 8/04/23

The US labor market continues to cool off.

The US economy created 187,000 new jobs in July while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. Economists had expected job gains to total 200,000 with the unemployment remaining unchanged at 3.6%.

Job gains in July were the least since December 2020.

Wages, a closely watched indicator of how much leverage workers are exerting in the labor market, rose more than expected last month, rising 0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.4% over last year. Economists expected wages to rise 0.3% over last month and 4.2% over last year.

Job gains have now averaged 312,000 per month over the last year.

Reaction 8:53 AM Mortgage Bonds are up 8 bp to a price of 98.45 (Price Higher Yield Lower) the 10 year treasury is down3 bp to 4.157%

Thursday 8/03/2023 Consensus 200,000 new jobs were created compared to last months 209,000 and a 3.6% unemployment rate. Average earnings is expected to decrease from 4.4% to 4.2% year over year.

Friday 7/07/2023

8:38 The BLS Jobs report showed 209,000 jobs were created in June which is weaker that the expected 240,000. Plus there was 110,000 in negative revisions to April and May's report. Reaction: Mortgage Bond prices ended the day lower (Price Lower Yield Higher). The 10 Year Treasury is currently testing 4.066% which has been a recent ceiling of resistance.

 

Friday 6/02/2023

10:16 AM ET Mortgage Bonds are down 25 bp to 99.92 (Price Down Yield Up) The 10 year is up 6 pb to 3.666%

8:38 AM : The BLS Jobs report showed that there was an increase of 339,000 jobs in the month of May, which was well above expectations of 190,000. Employment gains in March and April were revised higher by a combined 93,000. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7%, which was higher than the 3.5% estimate . Average weekly earnings are unchanged for the month and up 3.4% year over year.

 

Next report comes out Friday 6/02/2023

Consensus 180,000 new jobs created compared to last month's 253,000. Average Hourly earnings to increase by 4.4% compared to last months 4.3%. The employment rate to be 3.5% compared to last month's 3.4%

 

Friday 5/05/2023

9:04 AM Mortgage Bond Prices are down resulting in slightly higher yields and the 10 year is up 8 bp to 3.4480%

8:43 AM : The BLS Jobs report showed that there was an increase of 253,000 jobs in the month of April, which was above expectations of 165,000. The previous two reports were revised lower by a combined 149,000. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.4%, which was below the estimate . Average weekly earnings are up 0.5% for the month and up 3.8% year over year.

4/07/2023

8:43 AM ET Jobs remain strong.  See actual below.  Mortgage Bonds are off and the 10 year is up 6 bp to 3.359%. For updates go to: Interest rates 4/3 - 4/07/23

8:44 AM : The BLS Jobs report showed that there was an increase of 236,000 jobs in the month of March, which was below expectations of 239,000. Employment gains in January and February combined were revised lower by 17,000. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 3.5%, which was just below the 3.6% estimate. Average weekly earnings are flat for the month and up 3.3% year over year.

 

John Marbury                        

205-266-5660  

john.marbury@southstatebank.com                      

NMLS #740833                   

For updates, mortgage calculators and online application go to: https://www.johnmarbury.com/