Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE Fed's favored inflation measure)

The Fed’s favored inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures.

Reported on the last Friday of the month at 8:30 am eastern time. 

What is the PCE Index?  According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Department of Commerce: A measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services.  The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation(or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.  To learn more about PCE click: More about PCE

PCE & PCE Excluding Food and Energy

July 2023 -------------3.3%

June 2023 ------------3.0%

May 2023------------- 3.8%

April 2023--------------4.3%

March 2023------------4.2%

February 2023--------5.0%

January 2023----------5.3%

December 2022-------5.3%

November 2022-------5.7%  

October 2022-----------6.1%  

September 2022-------6.3%  

2023 Schedule of Releases of the PCE: Friday September 29 / Friday October 27 / Thursday November 30 / Friday December 22

8/31/2023

7/28/2023

8:40 AM : Headline PCE inflation for June increased by 0.2%, and decreased by 0.8% to 3% year over year, which was in line with expectations. Core PCE increased by 0.2% month over month, matching the estimates, and decreased 0.5% to 4.1% year over, coming in just below expectations of 4.2%.

Reaction 9:30 AM : Stocks have started the day higher. The Dow is +167.65 at 35,450.37 and the S&P 500 is +32.96 at 4,570.37. Mortgage Bonds are +27bp at 99.19. (when the price is higher yields come down)

7/24/23 the Marketing is expecting the PCE to drop to 3.0% from last month's reading of 3.8% Year over year reading.

6/30/2023

8:45 AM ET PCE showed inflation rose by 0.1% in May which is lower that the 0.2% expected. Year over year the PCE dropped to 3.8%

5/26/2023

8:42 AM ET: Headline PCE inflation for April increased by 0.4%, which was above estimates of 0.2%, and increased by 0.2% to 4.4% year over year, which was higher than expectations of 4.1%. Core PCE increased by 0.4% month over month, which was above the 0.3% estimate, and increased 0.1% to 4.7% year over, coming in higher than expectations of 4.6%.

8:50 AM ET: Reaction 30 year 5.5% Mortgage Backed Security is down 23 bp to 98.88 (when the price goes down yields go up).  The 10 year is up 2 basis points to a yield of 3.831%. This is the highest this yield has been since 3/10/2023.

4/28/2023

8:47 AM : Headline PCE inflation for March increased by 0.1%, which was lower than expectations of 0.3%, and decreased by 0.9% to 4.2% year over year, coming in below the 4.5% estimate. Core PCE increased by 0.3% month over month, in line with expectations, and decreased by 0.1% to 4.6% year over year, which was just above estimates of 4.5%.

3/31/2023

8:41 AM : Headline PCE inflation for February increased by 0.3%, which was lower than expectations of 0.5%, and decreased by 0.3% to 5% year over year, coming in below the 5.1% estimate. Core PCE increased by 0.3% month over month, which was lower than expectations of 0.4%, and decreased by 0.1% to 4.6% year over, in line with estimates.

9:03 AM 10 year Treasury 3.534% down 2 basis points from yesterday’s close. Today's report was not a market mover one way or the other.

For more information: 

John Marbury - 205-266-5669

john.marbury@southstatebank.com

NMLS# 740833

For updates, mortgage calculators and online application go to: https://www.johnmarbury.com/