Daily News for the Week 2/13-2/17/23 (All posts are Eastern Standard Time)
What to Look for This Week?
After last week’s quiet economic calendar, this week brings crucial inflation, housing and manufacturing reports.
We’ll get an update on inflation when January’s Consumer Price Index is reported on Tuesday. Look for the Producer Price Index on Thursday, which will give us news on wholesale inflation.
On Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index will provide a near real-time read on builder confidence for this month. Housing Starts and Building Permits for January will be reported on Thursday.
February’s manufacturing data for the New York and Philadelphia regions will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Also of note on Tuesday, we’ll learn how small business owners were feeling last month via the National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index. Retail Sales data for January will be released on Wednesday while the latest Jobless Claims remain important to monitor when that data is released as usual on Thursday.
7:29 AM Mortgage Backed Securities are improving. 10 Year Treasury is down 1 bp to 3.738%
12:30 PM : At mid-day stocks are higher. The Dow is +311.44 at 34,180.71 and the S&P 500 is +40.06 at 4,130.52. Mortgage Bonds are +8bp at 100.41.
4:12 PM : Stocks have ended the day sharply higher. The Dow closed +376.66 at 34,245.93 and the S&P 500 closed +46.83 at 4,137.29. Mortgage Bonds are +6bp at 100.39.
8:39 AM : The NFIB small business optimism index increased by 0.5 in January to 90.3, which was just below expectations of 90.5.
8:45 AM : The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation on the consumer level, was reported at 0.5%, which was in line with expectations, and decreased 0.1% to 6.4% year over year, coming in above the 6.2% estimate. The Core CPI Rate, which strips out food and energy prices, remained flat in January, which was in line with expectations, and decreased 0.1% to 5.6% year over year, which was higher than estimates of 5.5%.
8:38 AM : Retail Sales increased by 3% in January, which was above estimates of 1.8%. The Control Group, which strips out autos, gas and building materials, increased by 2.6%, which was higher than expectations of 0.4%. The Control Group's prior figure was revised higher from a loss of 0.7% to a loss of 0.4%.
8:43 AM : The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which shows the health of the manufacturing sector in the NY region, wa
9:31 AM : Stocks have started the day lower. The Dow is -189.51 at 33,899.76 and the S&P 500 is -24.61 at 4,111.52. Mortgage Bonds are -14bp at 100.09 (price down yield up)
8:48 AM : Initial Jobless Claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, was reported at 194,000 claims for last week. This represents a decrease of 1,000 from the previous revised report of 195,000 claims, and was below expectations of 200,000. Continuing Claims increased by 13,000 to 1.696 Million claims, which was just above than the 1.695 Million estimate.
8:57 AM : Housing Starts for January were reported at a 1.309 Million annual unit pace, which is down 62,000 from the previous month's revised report of 1.371 Million. Housing Permits, which are a good indicator of future starts, increased to 1.339 Million units. This is up 2,000 from last month's figure of 1.337 Million
8:52 AM : The Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, was reported for the month of January. The Headline PPI figure was up 0.7%, which was above expectations of 0.4%. On a year over year basis PPI decreased by 0.5% from 6.5% to 6%, which was higher than the 5.4% estimate. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy prices, increased by 0.5%,
Close of the day Mortgage Bonds down and the yield higher. 10 year Treasury up 6 bp to 3.8630%
The 10 year treasury hit a low on Thursday 2/02/23 during the day of 3.336% right before the jobs report. The 10 year closed Friday at 3.817%, up 0.481%. The next jobs report will be Friday 3/10/23. This report may give us another hint, if we are headed to recession or not. Stay tuned!
8:38 AM : Headline PCE inflation (Fed’s favorite inflation tracking indicator) January increased by 0.6%, which was above estimates of 0.3%, and increased by 0.1% to 5.4% year over year, which was higher than expectations of 4.8%. Core PCE increased by 0.6% month over month, which was above estimates of 0.4%, and increased by 0.3% to 4.7% year over, which was higher than estimates of 4.3%
Great Article on PCE from the AP
The 10 year is up 8 bp to 3.949%
Also released at the same time is Personal Income and Spending.