7:41 AM The Mortgage Bankers Association released their Mortgage Application Data for the week ending 9/23, showing that overall application volume decreased by 3.7%. Applications to Purchase a home were down 0.4% for the week and down 29% year over year. Refinances decreased by 10.9% from the previous week and were 84% lower from one year ago.
8:10 AM Mortgage Bonds are up 56 BP (Price Up Yield Down) We are considering moving to a floating bias, but we will stick to locking until we see a trend.
8:11 AM 10 year Treasury is down 12 bp to 3.8480%
8:30 AM Stocks have started the day higher. The Dow is +105.93 at 29,240.92 and the S&P 500 is +8.65 at 3,655.94. Mortgage Bonds are +58bp at 97.77.
9:02 AM Pending Home Sales, which measures signed contracts on existing homes, decreased by 2% in August, which was lower the expected 1.4% decrease.
11:30 AM At mid-day stocks are sharply higher. The Dow is +391.88 at 29,526.87 and the S&P 500 is +50.29 at 3,697.58. Mortgage Bonds are +50bp at 97.69.
4:31 Mortgage Bonds now up 84 BP. (Price up Yield Down) 10 year Treasury down 23 BPs to 3.733%. We are Now Changing our BIAS to Carefully Floating.
7:30 AM The final reading on GDP came in -0.6% for the 2nd month in a row. Two months of negative GDP has been called a recession since 1947. We will wait on the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) to tell us what they think. Initial Jobless Claims came is -16,000 to 193,000 the lowest we have seen in 5 months.
A word from Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Rise for the Sixth Consecutive Week
The uncertainty and volatility in financial markets is heavily impacting mortgage rates. Our survey indicates that the range of weekly rate quotes for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has more than doubled over the last year. This means that for the typical mortgage amount, a borrower who locked-in at the higher end of the range would pay several hundred dollars more than a borrower who locked-in at the lower end of the range. The large dispersion in rates means it has become even more important for homebuyers to shop around with different lenders.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey US Weekly averages as of 9/29/22
Rate Fees/ Points From last week From last year
30 Yr FRM 6.70% 0.91% +0.41% +3.69%
15 Yr FRM 5.96% 1.30% +0.52% +3.68%
5 Yr ARM 5.30% 0.40% 0.33% +2.82%
Market Wrap Mortgage bonds ended Down 56 BP (Price Down Yield Up). The 10 ended up 7 BP to close at 3.7820%. Bias Floating Carefully
Friday September 30th, 2022
7:30 AM Headline PCE inflation for August increased by 0.3%, which was above expectations of 0.1%, and decreased by 0.2% to 6.2% year over year, matching the estimate. Core PCE increased by 0.6% month over month, exceeding expectations of 0.5%, and increased by 0.2% to 4.9% year over, opposing estimates of no gain.
Core Personal Consumption expenditures Personal Consumption Expenditures
Month over Month 0.3% expected 0.3% previous -0.1%
Year over Year 6.2% expected 6.6% previous 6.4%
Core Personal Consumption expenditures The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator.
Month over Month 0.6% expected 0.5% previous 0.0%
Year over Year 4.9% expected 4.7% previous 4.7%
Mortgage Bonds up 36 BP (Price up Yield Down)
10 year Treasury down 6 BP 3.6900%
Bias Floating Carefully