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Interest Rate Daily September 12 to 16 2022: Current Bias LOCKING

Interest Rate Daily September 12 to 16 2022: Current Bias LOCKING

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Friday 9/16/22

 

8:31 AM Stocks have started the day sharply lower. The Dow is -334.45 at 30,627.37 and the S&P 500 is -36.40 at 3,864.94. Mortgage Bonds are -16bp at 99.48. (Price Lower Yield Higher)

 

Thursday  9/15/22

 

Based on current market trends and can change often our Current Bias LOCKING

 

9:32 AM Stocks have started the day lower. The Dow is -60.38 at 31,074.71 and the S&P 500 is -16.79 at 3,929.22. Mortgage Bonds are -28bp at 99.70 (Price Down Yield Up)

 

8:12 AM Retail Sales increased by 0.3% in August, which was above estimates of no gain. Last month's figure was revised lower from 0% to a 0.4% decline. The Control Group, which strips out autos, gas and building materials, increased by 0.3%, which was in line with expectations. The Control Group's prior figure was revised lower from 0.7% to 0.3%

 7:38 AM Initial Jobless Claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, was reported at 213,000 claims for last week. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous revised report of 218,000 claims, and was below estimates of 226,000. Continuing Claims increased by 2,000 to 1.403 Million claims, which was fewer than expectations of 1.475 Million.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Exceed Six Percent for the First Time Since 2008

September 15, 2022

 

Mortgage rates continued to rise alongside hotter-than-expected inflation numbers this week, exceeding six percent for the first time since late 2008. Although the increase in rates will continue to dampen demand and put downward pressure on home prices, inventory remains inadequate. This indicates that while home price declines will likely continue, they should not be large.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey®

U.S. weekly averages as of 09/15/2022

 

30-Yr FRM
6.02%
0.13 1-Wk
3.16 1-Yr
0.8 Fees/Points
15-Yr FRM
5.21%
0.05 1-Wk
3.09 1-Yr
0.9 Fees/Points
5/1-Yr ARM
4.93%
0.29 1-Wk
2.42 1-Yr
0.2 Fees/Points

 

Wednesday 9/14/22

 

7:45 AM Mortgage Bonds are down 30 BPs (Price Down Yield Up)

 

7:30 AM Producer Price Index (PPI)

                                    Previous    Expected   Actual

Month over Month

PPI                                 - 0.4           -0.1         - 0.1   

Ex Food & Energy           0.3             0.3           0.4

 

Year over Year

PPI                                 9.8               8.8           8.7

 

Ex Food & Energy         7.6                7.1           7.3             

 

Tuesday 9/13/22

 

8:30 AM Stocks have started the day sharply lower. The Dow is -550.51 at 31,830.83 and the S&P 

500 is -88.42 at 4,021.99. Mortgage Bonds are -69bp at 99.72.(Price Lower Yield Higher)

 

7:55 AM 10 year Treasury is up 5 bp to 3.423%. The 10 year hit a low of 2.527% on 8/02/22.

 

7:30 AM Consumer Price Index

                                Previous    Expected   Actual

Month over Month

CPI                                0.0         -0.1            0.1  

Ex Food & Energy         0.3          0.3            0.6

 

Year over Year

CPI                                 8.5           8.1            8.3

Ex Food & Energy          5.9           6.0            6.1


For more information:  Yahoo Finance CPI August 2022

 

The month over month Ex Food and Energy was doubled the number expected. This is the most concerning issue on the CPI for August.

 

Monday 9/12/22

 

12:10 Bonds responding poorly to a weak 10-year Auction. MBS Highway's Bill Hagmann grades the auction a 'D'. However, tomorrow's CPI may be favorable for the Bond market.

 

12:07 PM The 10-Year Treasury Note Auction was met with below average demand. MBS Highway's Bill Hagmann grades the auction a D. The bid to cover of 2.37 was below the one year average of 2.48. Direct and indirect bidders took 80.2% of the auction compared to 86% in the previous 1

 

11:30 AM At mid-day stocks are higher. The Dow is +178.45 at 32,330.16 and the S&P 500 is +30.57 at 4,097.93. Mortgage Bonds are +5bp at 98.95.

 

8:30 AM Stocks have started the day higher. The Dow is +112.54 at 32,264.25 and the S&P 500 is +22.75 at 4,090.11. Mortgage Bonds are +19bp at 99.09. (Price Up Yield Down).  This is good news for rates today, but the trend is still indicating higher rates till tomorrow’s CPI number that comes out at 7:30 AM tomorrow.

 

8:30 AM Stocks have started the day higher. The Dow is +112.54 at 32,264.25 and the S&P 500 is +22.75 at 4,090.11. Mortgage Bonds are +19bp at 99.09. (Price Up Yield Down).  This is good news for rates today, but the trend since 8/02/22 is still indicating higher rates; hopefully this will change after CPI number that comes out at 7:30 AM tomorrow.

 

 

 

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Thanks!

John

John Marbury

First Federal Mortgage

NMLS# 740833

Cell: 205-266-5669

jmarbury@1stfed.com

 

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