September 29th, 2017
Rates Effective September 29, 2017 10:30 AM EST
*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)
**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.250% (3.397% APR)
Conforming loans $424,100 and under
No origination fee on all posted rates. Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news
Suggestions that can change during the day: Low inflation data is supporting Mortgage Bond prices this morning, while the S&P 500 Stock Index trades near unchanged. Carefully floating is recommended.
After close Commentary: Coming Soon
Late morning Commentary: Inflation in the U.S. continued to run at low levels in August. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the annual Core PCE, rose 1.3% from August 2016, the lowest annual increase since November 2015. The Core PCE strips out volatile food and energy. On a monthly basis, Core PCE rose 0.1% from July. The Federal Reserve continues to say that the low inflation levels are "transitory", but low inflation levels have been reported for at least seven years. Transitory by definition means lasting only a short time.
Personal spending barely rose in August, which could be due in part to Hurricane Harvey, as it weighed on auto sales. Spending rose 0.1% in August, which was in line with estimates. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Personal incomes were up 0.2% in August, meeting expectations. Personal income refers to an individual's total earnings from wages, investment enterprises, and other ventures. It is the sum of all the incomes received by all the individuals or household during a given period.
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago area surged in September hitting the highest levels in more than three years. Gains were seen in demand, employment and backlogs. The Chicago PMI rose to 65.2 in September, above the 58.0 expected. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators, said: “The strong out turn in September means that on a quarterly basis business activity was broadly unchanged from an already impressive Q2. Looking forward, firms are on record expecting a busy Q4 despite disruptions caused by the recent storms, with just a handful expecting delivery times to lengthen between October through December.”
|Fri, Sep 29 9:39 AM Stocks are mixed soon after the open.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:50 AM MBS get a slight boost from the low inflation numbers.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:47 AM S&P futures slightly lower, as investors eye Trump's tax progress.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:41 AM U.S. dollar index 92.85, -0.08.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:39 AM The New York Fed will purchase up to $1.925B in 30-yr Fannie/Freddie 3% and 3.5% coupons beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:36 AM The monthly August Core PCE 0.1%, just below the 0.2% expected.|
Fri, Sep 29 8:35 AM August Personal Incomes 0.2%, in line with estimates. Personal Spending 0.1%, in line.
What are 'Personal Consumption Expenditures - PCE'
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), or the PCE Index, measure price changes of consumer goods and services. Expenditures noted on the index include actual expenditures and expenditures that are attributed to households in the United States; data that pertains to services, durables and non-durables is measured through the index. Sharing similarities with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PCE is part of the personal income report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
|Fri, Sep 29 8:32 AM Inflation continued to run at low levels in August - Core PCE 1.3% on an annual basis, the lowest annual increase since November 2015. It is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:23 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.31%.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:23 AM WTI oil at $51.67/barrel, near unchanged.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:20 AM Economic data today includes Personal Income & Spending, Core PCE at 8:30, Chicago PMI at 9:45, Consumer Sentiment at 10.|
|Fri, Sep 29 8:14 AM MBS look to end the week in a quiet fashion as both the month and 3rd quarter comers to an end as they open near unchanged.|
**Rate Assumptions coming soon
Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post. However any aspect of such may change without notice. Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.