Mortgage Rates & 2nd Quarter Strong GDP

September 28th, 2017

Rates Effective September 28, 2017 10:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.250% (3.397% APR)

 Conforming loans $424,100 and under

 No origination fee on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Mortgage Bond prices are near unchanged and are being supported by lower Stock prices. Floating seems like a good idea.

After close Commentary: Mortgage Bonds were able to squeak out gains in today's session, despite the S&P closing at a fresh record high. After their recent sell-off, Mortgage Bonds are looking for a bottom. The Fannie Mae 3.5% 30-yr coupon closed at 103.19, +9bp, just below support one (S1) at the 50-day Moving Average and just above support two (S2) at the 100-day. Stocks rallied on the tax hope plan but the gains were modest. The Dow closed at 22,381.20, +40.49 points, the S&P at 2,510.06, while the tech heavy NASDAQ closed near unchanged at 6,543.45. WTI oil closed at $51.56, -$0.58. The 10-yr T Note 2.30% after hitting 2.36% in overnight trading. Tomorrow, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE, will be released along with Personal Income & Spending, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment.

 

Late morning Commentary:  The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that the final reading on second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew to a more healthy level of 3.1%, up from the anemic 1.2% recorded in the first quarter. It was the best reading since the 3.2% in the first quarter of 2015. GDP was boosted by stronger business and consumer spending. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. It is considered the broadest measure of economic activity.

The Trump administration rolled out its new tax reform plan yesterday vowing that it would be the largest cut in the history of the U.S. The plan has skeptics wondering how it would be paid for, but Trump advisor Gary Cohn said this morning that the U.S. plans to pay for the entire tax cut through economic growth. The tax plan calls for a repeal of most itemized deductions, AMT and the estate tax. In addition, the current standard deduction of $6,350 for single filers would increase to $12,000 and the $12,700 standard deduction for joint filers would go from $12,700 to $24,000.

Freddie Mac reports that mortgage rates were unchanged in the latest week and remain at historically attractive levels. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.83% this week with an average 0.6 point added on top of the rate. A year ago this time, the rate was 3.42%. Freddie Mac says average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. 

Thu, Sep 28 9:32 AM Stocks slightly lower soon after the opening bell.
Thu, Sep 28 9:08 AM The Treasury will sell $28B 7-yr Notes today, results at 1:00 p.m. ET. and comes after solid demand from the 2- and 5-yr offerings during the past two days.
Thu, Sep 28 8:32 AM S&P futures still negative after the GDP data, Mortgage Bond prices near unchanged.
Thu, Sep 28 8:31 AM Weekly Initial Jobless Claims +12K to 272K vs the 275K expected. Claims could be impacted by Irma and Harvey.
Thu, Sep 28 8:30 AM Final Q2 2017 GDP at 3.1%, in line with estimates.
Thu, Sep 28 8:12 AM U.S. dollar index 93.05, -0.11.
Thu, Sep 28 8:11 AM The 10-yr T Note yield at 2.33%.
Thu, Sep 28 8:09 AM The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon opens near unchanged ahead of the GDP data.
Thu, Sep 28 8:09 AM Trump advisor Gary Cohn says we can pay for the entire tax cut through economic growth.
Thu, Sep 28 8:03 AM Playboy founder Hugh Hefner passes away at age 91.
Thu, Sep 28 8:02 AM WTI oil continues to gush higher +$0.44 to $52.57/barrel.
Thu, Sep 28 8:01 AM The third reading on Q2 GDP will be released at 8:30 along with Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
Thu, Sep 28 8:00 AM Mortgage Bond prices look to open modestly lower while S&P futures are pointing towards a slightly lower open.

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

 

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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As a loan officer (mortgage broker 1989-2006) since 1985, I have seen a lot of changes over the years. The only consistency in the mortgage business and life is change. This is the reason that we believe it is necessary to move quickly and to be early. Let us know if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.

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