Mortgage Rates & Fed Member Dudley Speaks

September 25th, 2017

Rates Effective September 25, 2017 10:30 AM EST

*30-Year Fixed Rate 3.875% (3.961%APR)

**15-Year Fixed Rate 3.250% (3.397% APR)

Conforming loans $424,100 and under

No origination fee on all posted rates.  Call for other rates. ***Rate Assumptions below the news

Suggestions that can change during the day: Bonds are improving this morning.  Floating is advised.

After close Commentary: Not a lot of action in the Mortgage market today to begin the last week of the third quarter. There were no economic reports released today. The Fannie Mae 30-yr 3.5% coupon closed at 103.34, +12bp and securely above support at the 50-day Moving Average (103.23). Stocks ended lower on the tech wreck along with the North Korean headlines, led lower by the FAANG stocks - Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The Dow fell by 53.50 points to 22,296.09, the S&P closed down by 5.56 points to 2,496.66, while the NASDAQ fell hard declining 56.43 points to end at 6,370.59. WTI oil closed at $52.22, +$1.56. The yield on the 10-yr T Note closed at 2.22% as it continues to edge lower after hitting nearly 2.30% last week. Tomorrow's economic data includes S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales.

Late morning Commentary:   Several Federal Reserve members will be speaking today, including New York's William Dudley, Chicago's Charles Evans and Neil Kashkari from Minneapolis. The Fed's Dudley said this morning that U.S. fundamentals are favorable and that inflation's transitory effects are fading. Mr. Dudley went on to say that he expects stronger wage growth with slightly-better-than-average economic growth. Fed Chair Yellen will be speaking tomorrow on topics such as inflation and uncertainty about monetary policy. The speeches come after the Fed announced last week that it will begin to unwind its massive balance sheet beginning in October.

Cloud-based platform provider Ellie Mae released its Origination Insight Report for August late last week revealing that overall closing rates climbed to 71.7%, the highest since January of 2017 and up from 70.6% in July. And despite an uptick in mortgage rates, the percentage of refinances remained steady at 35% of total loans. Ellie Mae went on to say that the percentage breakdown of all closed loans remained steady for the third consecutive month with conventional loans representing 64% of all closed loans, FHA loans representing 22% of all closed loans, and VA loans representing 10% of all closed loans.

After Hurricane Harvey hit the Gulf Coast, gas prices spiked as many refineries went offline due to the disaster. In the past two weeks, refineries have come back on line while gas prices have pushed lower. The national average prices for a regular gallon of gas hit $2.67 in the week following Harvey, but is now $2.57 on average across the nation. Price will most likely continue to edge lower in the coming weeks as fewer drivers are seen on the roads in September, October and in early November.

Mon, Sep 25 10:57 AM North Korean official says President Trump's words against North Korea are a declaration of war. Stocks move a leg lower. Bond prices rising. 10-yr yield declines to 2.22%.
Mon, Sep 25 10:52 AM Stocks now pushing further into negative territory. Mortgage Bond prices push higher, now at session highs.
Mon, Sep 25 9:54 AM Stocks trade slightly lower soon after the open. Dow -17 points.
Mon, Sep 25 8:37 AM Dudley expects slightly better than average economic growth, wage gains.
Mon, Sep 25 8:34 AM Dudley says he expects continued gradual U.S. policy tightening.
Mon, Sep 25 8:33 AM Dudley says inflation's transitory effects fading, expects stronger wage growth.
Mon, Sep 25 8:32 AM Fed's Dudley says U.S. fundamentals are favorable.
Mon, Sep 25 8:29 AM The Treasury will sell $26B 2-yr Notes tomorrow, $34B 5s on Wednesday and $28B 7s on Thursday - results at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Mon, Sep 25 8:26 AM Fed Chair Yellen will be speaking tomorrow on topics such as inflation and uncertainty about monetary policy.
Mon, Sep 25 8:23 AM Ellie Mae reports that closing rates in August increased to their highest point since the beginning of this year.
Mon, Sep 25 8:21 AM U.S. dollar index 92.37, +0.40.
Mon, Sep 25 8:20 AM WTI oil $51.32/barrel, +$0.64.
Mon, Sep 25 8:11 AM 10-yr T Note yield 2.23% from Friday's close of 2.26%.
Mon, Sep 25 8:11 AM There are no economic reports due for release today. The rest of the week features a broad array of reports that covers a large scope of the U.S. economy. Check out our Economic Calendar on the Mortgage Market Guide website located under the "Data" tab.
Mon, Sep 25 8:07 AM Fed speak today features New York's Dudley, Chicago's Evans and Kashkari from Minneapolis.
Mon, Sep 25 8:06 AM Mortgage Bonds open near unchanged while Treasury prices edge higher.
Mon, Sep 25 8:03 AM Mortgage Bonds look to open in positive territory as S&P futures currently point towards a slightly lower open when the bell rings at 9:30 a.m. ET on Wall Street.

***Rate Assumptions

 Actual payments will vary based on your individual situation and current rates. The above rates are subject to change.

  • Some products may not be available in all states.
  • Jumbo Rates (loans over $424,100) not be available to first time home buyers.
  • Lending services may not be available in all areas.
  • Some restrictions may apply.
  • Based on the purchase/refinance of a primary residence with no cash out at closing.
  • We assumed (unless otherwise noted) that: closing costs are paid out of pocket; this is your primary residence and is a single family home; debt-to-income ratio is less than 30%; and credit score is over 780; and an escrow account for the payment of taxes and insurance.
  • The lock period for your rate is 30 days.
  • The loan to value (LTV) ratio is 70%. If LTV > 80%, PMI will be added to your monthly mortgage payment for all conventional loans.
  • Rates assume a credit score of at least 780.
  • Please remember that we don’t have all your information. Therefore, the rate and payment results you see from this calculator may not reflect your actual situation. National Bank of Commerce offers a wide variety of loan options. You may still qualify for a loan even if your situation doesn’t match our assumptions. To get more accurate and personalized results, please call (205) 266-5669 to talk to John Marbury.
  • *30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.875% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $940.47 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.961%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply.
  • **15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The monthly payment on a $200,000 15-year Fixed-Rate Loan at 3.250% and 70% loan-to-value (LTV) is $1405.34 with 0 points due at closing. The Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 3.397%. Payment does not include taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment amount will be greater. Some state and county maximum loan amount restrictions may apply

Johnmarbury.com has attempted to verify the information contained on this post.  However any aspect of such may change without notice.  Johnmarbury.com does not provide investment advice and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Forgive my spelling and grammatical mistakes due to writing skills that are lacking and the need to communicate quickly.  

Contact

John Marbury
jmarbury@nationalbankofcommerce.com
NMLS# 740833
Phone:205-266-5669
Fax: 866-217-4174

813 Shades Creek Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35209
 

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